Closing spread
CAR -12
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.048
- 39.6%Success rate40.9%
- -0.036EPA / dropback-0.038
- -0.169EPA / rush-0.062
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.7%
- -5.73CPOE-4.49
- 34.6%Third-down rate36.5%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 1.59Points / drive1.61
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 10–6 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. CAR are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 17/36 | 243 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 2 | 75 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 10 | 55 | 1 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Rod Streater | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Burbridge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 24/40 | 353 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fozzy Whittaker | 16 | 100 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 8 | 122 | 1 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 7 | 9 | 108 | 2 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 2 | 4 | 19 | 1 |
| Corey Brown | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.4%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.59
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.35
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+5.00