2016 · Week 2

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Blaine Gabbert

27·46

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CAR -12

Total

44.5

Model margin

+5.0est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapPanthers
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.048
  • 39.6%Success rate40.9%
  • -0.036EPA / dropback-0.038
  • -0.169EPA / rush-0.062
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -5.73CPOE-4.49
  • 34.6%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.61
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 10–6 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. CAR are 11-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12CAR @ SF9–20SF
2022 · W5SF @ CAR37–15SF
2019 · W8CAR @ SF13–51SF
2017 · W1CAR @ SF23–3CAR
2013 · playoffsSF @ CAR23–10SF
2013 · W10CAR @ SF10–9CAR
2010 · W7SF @ CAR20–23CAR
2007 · W13SF @ CAR14–31CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–CAR
CARQ1 15:0021Turnover0–0
SFQ1 14:17611Field goal3–0
CARQ1 11:211331Punt3–0
SFQ1 4:4023Opp touchdown3–7
SFQ1 4:04742Punt3–7
CARQ1 0:27541Turnover3–7
SFQ2 13:40769Touchdown10–7
CARQ2 10:02178Touchdown10–14
SFQ2 9:4032Punt10–14
CARQ2 8:19733Punt10–14
SFQ2 4:49733Punt10–14
CARQ2 1:48640Punt10–14
SFQ2 1:0434Punt10–14
CARQ2 0:42433Field goal10–17
SFQ2 0:0100End of half10–17
SFQ3 15:0031Punt10–17
CARQ3 13:291059Touchdown10–24
SFQ3 8:3832Punt10–24
CARQ3 7:50675Touchdown10–31
SFQ3 4:56842Punt10–31
CARQ3 2:13625Turnover10–31
SFQ4 14:013-4Field goal13–31
CARQ4 12:3800Touchdown19–31
SFQ4 12:3511Touchdown20–31
CARQ4 12:31730Field goal20–34
SFQ4 8:07275Touchdown27–34
CARQ4 7:51840Field goal27–37
SFQ4 4:0820Turnover27–37
CARQ4 3:57434Touchdown27–43
SFQ4 3:3140Turnover27–43
CARQ4 3:0239Field goal27–46
SFQ4 1:06421End of half27–46

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert17/3624322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde14342.40
Shaun Draughn9212.30
Blaine Gabbert3103.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vance McDonald12751
Torrey Smith310551
Jeremy Kerley36290
Quinton Patton36250
Carlos Hyde33180
Rod Streater12130
Garrett Celek12120
Mike Davis11100
Blake Bell1260
Shaun Draughn0100
Aaron Burbridge0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton24/4035341

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fozzy Whittaker161006.30
Cam Newton6376.20
Jonathan Stewart591.80
Ted Ginn155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen581221
Kelvin Benjamin791082
Ted Ginn24510
Fozzy Whittaker34310
Devin Funchess24191
Corey Brown36150
Jonathan Stewart2270
Ed Dickson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +126.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.4%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.59
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.35
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+5.00