2019 · Week 8

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

13·51

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

SF -4.5

Total

41

Model margin

+5.4est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge map49ers
  • -0.082EPA / play+0.077
  • 43.3%Success rate44.8%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback+0.194
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.061
  • 7.4%Explosive rate12.1%
  • -2.45CPOE+2.34
  • 32.4%Third-down rate45.8%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 1.56Points / drive2.28
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 10–6 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. SF are 5-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12CAR @ SF9–20SF
2022 · W5SF @ CAR37–15SF
2017 · W1CAR @ SF23–3CAR
2016 · W2SF @ CAR27–46CAR
2013 · playoffsSF @ CAR23–10SF
2013 · W10CAR @ SF10–9CAR
2010 · W7SF @ CAR20–23CAR
2007 · W13SF @ CAR14–31CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–SF
SFQ1 15:001175Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 9:1430Punt0–7
SFQ1 7:0310Turnover0–7
CARQ1 6:59518Field goal3–7
SFQ1 4:23770Touchdown3–14
CARQ1 1:09515Turnover3–14
SFQ2 13:46327Touchdown3–21
CARQ2 12:4343Punt3–21
SFQ2 9:39723Punt3–21
CARQ2 6:24626Punt3–21
SFQ2 3:48458Touchdown3–27
CARQ2 1:53714Punt3–27
SFQ2 0:5021End of half3–27
CARQ3 15:00517Punt3–27
SFQ3 13:242-2Safety5–27
CARQ3 12:43451Touchdown13–27
SFQ3 11:15875Touchdown13–34
CARQ3 7:1544Punt13–34
SFQ3 5:563-3Punt13–34
CARQ3 3:4659Turnover13–34
SFQ3 1:5045Touchdown13–41
CARQ3 0:29237Turnover13–41
SFQ4 15:0037Field goal13–44
CARQ4 12:523-1Punt13–44
SFQ4 12:0332Punt13–44
CARQ4 9:451028Turnover on downs13–50
SFQ4 6:24141Touchdown13–51
CARQ4 6:1649Turnover on downs13–51
SFQ4 4:08312End of half13–51
SFQ4 1:2300End of half13–51
SFQ4 0:4100End of half13–51

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Allen19/3715803

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey141178.41
Jordan Scarlett492.30
Reggie Bonnafon144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Curtis Samuel411460
Christian McCaffrey45380
DJ Moore59380
Greg Olsen22130
Jarius Wright24120
DeAndrew White1180
Reggie Bonnafon1330
Brandon Zylstra0100
Ian Thomas0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo18/2217521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman111059.53
Raheem Mostert9606.71
Matt Breida11353.20
Deebo Samuel Sr.22914.51
Jeff Wilson263.00
Nick Mullens3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle67860
Emmanuel Sanders45251
Deebo Samuel Sr.33190
Matt Breida11150
Tevin Coleman22131
Kendrick Bourne11120
Dante Pettis1350

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.5%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+5.44