Closing spread
SF -4.5
Total
41
Model margin
+5.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.082EPA / play+0.077
- 43.3%Success rate44.8%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.194
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.061
- 7.4%Explosive rate12.1%
- -2.45CPOE+2.34
- 32.4%Third-down rate45.8%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.56Points / drive2.28
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 10–6 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. SF are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Allen | 19/37 | 158 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 14 | 117 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Jordan Scarlett | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Reggie Bonnafon | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 11 | 46 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 5 | 9 | 38 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| DeAndrew White | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Reggie Bonnafon | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 18/22 | 175 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 11 | 105 | 9.5 | 3 |
| Raheem Mostert | 9 | 60 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 7 | 86 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 5 | 25 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.26
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+5.44