2010 · Week 7

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

20·23

Panthers

Carolina

QB Matt Moore

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

SF -1

Total

36.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapPanthers
  • -0.055EPA / play-0.249
  • 38.8%Success rate33.5%
  • -0.024EPA / dropback-0.274
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.215
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -4.51CPOE-7.94
  • 33.2%Third-down rate30.0%
  • 55.8%Red-zone TD rate44.3%
  • 1.30Points / drive0.77
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 10–6 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. CAR are 11-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12CAR @ SF9–20SF
2022 · W5SF @ CAR37–15SF
2019 · W8CAR @ SF13–51SF
2017 · W1CAR @ SF23–3CAR
2016 · W2SF @ CAR27–46CAR
2013 · playoffsSF @ CAR23–10SF
2013 · W10CAR @ SF10–9CAR
2007 · W13SF @ CAR14–31CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–CAR
CARQ1 15:00515Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:08474Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 10:26936Field goal7–3
SFQ1 5:40928Punt7–3
CARQ1 0:3538Punt7–3
SFQ2 14:0934Punt7–3
CARQ2 13:1829Turnover7–3
SFQ2 12:33750Field goal10–3
CARQ2 8:441261Touchdown10–10
SFQ2 2:28525Punt10–10
CARQ2 1:12410End of half10–10
SFQ3 15:004-8Punt10–10
CARQ3 13:47720Field goal10–13
SFQ3 9:4939Punt10–13
CARQ3 8:19841Turnover10–13
SFQ3 4:10739Field goal13–13
CARQ4 14:56521Opp touchdown20–13
CARQ4 12:52517Punt20–13
SFQ4 10:113-4Punt20–13
CARQ4 8:24640Turnover on downs20–13
SFQ4 5:3433Punt20–13
CARQ4 4:30963Touchdown20–20
SFQ4 1:53323Turnover20–20
CARQ4 1:08438Field goal20–23
SFQ4 0:39539End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith9/1912910
David Carr5/136701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore191025.40
Josh Morgan144.00
Brian Westbrook1-1-1.00
Anthony Dixon1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis48741
Frank Gore48570
Josh Morgan25340
Michael Crabtree45310
Ted Ginn0400
Nate Byham0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore28/4130821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams19442.30
Jonathan Stewart14292.10
Matt Moore133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Gettis891252
Brandon LaFell66910
Steve Smith48500
Dante Rosario55280
DeAngelo Williams46190
David Clowney0100
Jonathan Stewart0300
Mike Goodson12-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.0%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.95
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.11