Closing spread
SF -1
Total
36.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play-0.249
- 38.8%Success rate33.5%
- -0.024EPA / dropback-0.274
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.215
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.1%
- -4.51CPOE-7.94
- 33.2%Third-down rate30.0%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate44.3%
- 1.30Points / drive0.77
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 10–6 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. CAR are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 9/19 | 129 | 1 | 0 |
| David Carr | 5/13 | 67 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 19 | 102 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 8 | 74 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 4 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Byham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 28/41 | 308 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 19 | 44 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 14 | 29 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Gettis | 8 | 9 | 125 | 2 |
| Brandon LaFell | 6 | 6 | 91 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 5 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 4 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| David Clowney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.95
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.11