Closing spread
PK
Total
41
Model margin
+3.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play+0.050
- 41.8%Success rate42.1%
- +0.156EPA / dropback+0.130
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.056
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.3%
- -1.63CPOE+1.02
- 37.8%Third-down rate44.3%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.99Points / drive2.03
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 10–6 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. CAR are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 15/28 | 196 | 1 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 17 | 84 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 8 | 12 | 136 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Kassim Osgood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 16/25 | 267 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 6 | 104 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 5 | 74 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.02