2013 · DIV

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

23·10

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

PK

Total

41

Model margin

+3.0est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.034EPA / play+0.050
  • 41.8%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.156EPA / dropback+0.130
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.056
  • 10.6%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -1.63CPOE+1.02
  • 37.8%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.03
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 10–6 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. CAR are 11-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12CAR @ SF9–20SF
2022 · W5SF @ CAR37–15SF
2019 · W8CAR @ SF13–51SF
2017 · W1CAR @ SF23–3CAR
2016 · W2SF @ CAR27–46CAR
2013 · W10CAR @ SF10–9CAR
2010 · W7SF @ CAR20–23CAR
2007 · W13SF @ CAR14–31CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–CAR
SFQ1 15:001234Field goal3–0
CARQ1 9:12521Turnover3–0
SFQ1 6:18611Field goal6–0
CARQ1 4:33865Turnover on downs6–0
SFQ2 14:5332Punt6–6
CARQ2 13:47131Touchdown6–7
SFQ2 13:40420Punt6–7
CARQ2 12:401278Field goal6–10
SFQ2 3:411372Touchdown13–10
CARQ2 0:0500End of half13–10
CARQ3 15:0036Punt13–10
SFQ3 13:25879Touchdown20–10
CARQ3 8:531531Punt20–10
SFQ3 0:331273Field goal23–10
CARQ4 7:35934Turnover23–10
SFQ4 4:22924Turnover on downs23–10
CARQ4 0:12359End of half23–10

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick15/2819610
Anquan Boldin0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore17844.90
Kendall Hunter9273.00
Colin Kaepernick8151.91

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin8121360
Michael Crabtree37260
Quinton Patton11230
Frank Gore1280
Vernon Davis1411
Kassim Osgood0100
Anthony Dixon0100
Kendall Hunter0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton16/2526712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton10545.40
DeAngelo Williams5132.60
Brandon LaFell166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ted Ginn461040
Steve Smith45741
Greg Olsen46550
Brandon LaFell47340
DeAngelo Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line 03.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.02