Closing spread
SF -7.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play+0.091
- 43.7%Success rate48.5%
- +0.007EPA / dropback+0.175
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.033
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- +1.44CPOE+5.72
- 35.7%Third-down rate50.4%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 1.80Points / drive2.48
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 10–6 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. SF are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 18/29 | 169 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 2 | 7 | 35 | 1 |
| Jalen Coker | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Mitchell Evans | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 23/32 | 193 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 24 | 89 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Brian Robinson | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 10 | 78 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 5 | 7 | 41 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.13
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.84