2025 · Week 12

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

9·20

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SF -7.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge map49ers
  • -0.025EPA / play+0.091
  • 43.7%Success rate48.5%
  • +0.007EPA / dropback+0.175
  • -0.072EPA / rush-0.033
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +1.44CPOE+5.72
  • 35.7%Third-down rate50.4%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 1.80Points / drive2.48
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 10–6 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. SF are 5-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W5SF @ CAR37–15SF
2019 · W8CAR @ SF13–51SF
2017 · W1CAR @ SF23–3CAR
2016 · W2SF @ CAR27–46CAR
2013 · playoffsSF @ CAR23–10SF
2013 · W10CAR @ SF10–9CAR
2010 · W7SF @ CAR20–23CAR
2007 · W13SF @ CAR14–31CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–SF
SFQ1 15:001572Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 6:17417Punt0–7
SFQ1 3:4010Turnover0–7
CARQ1 3:29415Turnover0–7
SFQ1 1:221252Turnover0–7
CARQ2 9:3538Punt0–7
SFQ2 8:0033Turnover0–7
CARQ2 6:19626Field goal3–7
SFQ2 2:28525Field goal3–10
CARQ2 1:0036Punt3–10
SFQ2 0:17328End of half3–10
CARQ3 15:00531Punt3–10
SFQ3 12:251380Touchdown3–17
CARQ3 4:42868Touchdown9–17
SFQ3 0:49959Field goal9–20
CARQ4 9:21632Turnover9–20
SFQ4 6:27311Punt9–20
CARQ4 4:44627Missed field goal9–20
SFQ4 2:41412End of half9–20

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young18/2916912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle6386.30
Chuba Hubbard3165.30
Bryce Young4153.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rico Dowdle44360
Tetairoa McMillan27351
Jalen Coker34320
Chuba Hubbard44270
Xavier Legette35220
Jimmy Horn Jr.11110
Ja'Tavion Sanders1160
Mitchell Evans0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy23/3219313

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey24893.71
Brian Robinson7405.70
Brock Purdy6162.70
Ricky Pearsall122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle610780
Christian McCaffrey77530
Jauan Jennings57411
Demarcus Robinson1180
Ricky Pearsall2460
Brian Robinson1240
Luke Farrell1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.13
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.84