Closing spread
SF -6
Total
40
Model margin
-7.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play-0.036
- 46.1%Success rate40.8%
- +0.171EPA / dropback-0.062
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.005
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.4%
- -1.99CPOE-4.71
- 45.1%Third-down rate31.6%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 2.20Points / drive1.70
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 10–6 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. CAR are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 18/30 | 253 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 17 | 120 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 3 | 44 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 9 | 20 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Danny Gray | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 20/36 | 215 | 0 | 1 |
| PJ Walker | 5/6 | 60 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shi Smith | 4 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 12 | 50 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Giovanni Ricci | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
30.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.14
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-4.70
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-7.06