2022 · Week 5

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

37·15

Panthers

Carolina

QB Baker Mayfield

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

SF -6

Total

40

Model margin

-7.1est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.084EPA / play-0.036
  • 46.1%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.171EPA / dropback-0.062
  • -0.021EPA / rush-0.005
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -1.99CPOE-4.71
  • 45.1%Third-down rate31.6%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 2.20Points / drive1.70
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 10–6 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. CAR are 11-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12CAR @ SF9–20SF
2019 · W8CAR @ SF13–51SF
2017 · W1CAR @ SF23–3CAR
2016 · W2SF @ CAR27–46CAR
2013 · playoffsSF @ CAR23–10SF
2013 · W10CAR @ SF10–9CAR
2010 · W7SF @ CAR20–23CAR
2007 · W13SF @ CAR14–31CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–CAR
SFQ1 15:00775Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 11:4039Punt7–0
SFQ1 9:54630Turnover7–0
CARQ1 7:09933Missed field goal7–0
SFQ1 2:10843Field goal10–0
CARQ2 12:561163Field goal10–3
SFQ2 7:59530Punt10–3
CARQ2 5:3336Punt10–3
SFQ2 4:03629Missed field goal10–3
CARQ2 1:43518Opp touchdown17–3
CARQ2 0:4334Punt17–3
SFQ2 0:0400End of half17–3
CARQ3 15:00751Touchdown17–9
SFQ3 11:571272Touchdown24–9
CARQ3 6:32531Field goal24–12
SFQ3 3:401375Touchdown30–12
CARQ4 12:311155Field goal30–15
SFQ4 6:51542Punt30–15
CARQ4 4:294-7Turnover on downs30–15
SFQ4 4:0623Touchdown37–15
CARQ4 3:15845Turnover on downs37–15
SFQ4 0:2200End of half37–15

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo18/3025320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Wilson171207.11
Tevin Coleman8232.91
Deebo Samuel Sr.2126.00
Jimmy Garoppolo1-1-1.00
Brock Purdy1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk34580
George Kittle56470
Jauan Jennings22450
Tevin Coleman33441
Deebo Samuel Sr.29201
Jeff Wilson12120
Danny Gray0200

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield20/3621501
PJ Walker5/66000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey14543.91
DJ Moore188.00
D'Onta Foreman221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shi Smith45690
DJ Moore48590
Christian McCaffrey712500
Robbie Chosen15320
Terrace Marshall Jr.44300
Giovanni Ricci33270
Ian Thomas2280
Tommy Tremble0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.6%3.3%3.4%5.0%3.2%7.2%5.9%3.1%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

30.8%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.70
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-7.06