2013 · Week 10

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

10·9

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SF -6

Total

43

Model margin

+3.1est.

SF perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge map49ers
  • +0.050EPA / play+0.034
  • 42.1%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.130EPA / dropback+0.156
  • -0.056EPA / rush-0.110
  • 7.3%Explosive rate10.6%
  • +1.02CPOE-1.63
  • 44.3%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 2.03Points / drive1.99
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 10–6 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. SF are 5-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12CAR @ SF9–20SF
2022 · W5SF @ CAR37–15SF
2019 · W8CAR @ SF13–51SF
2017 · W1CAR @ SF23–3CAR
2016 · W2SF @ CAR27–46CAR
2013 · playoffsSF @ CAR23–10SF
2010 · W7SF @ CAR20–23CAR
2007 · W13SF @ CAR14–31CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–SF
SFQ1 15:00846Field goal0–3
CARQ1 10:453-11Punt0–3
SFQ1 9:0738Punt0–3
CARQ1 6:45923Punt0–3
SFQ1 2:2336Punt0–3
SFQ1 0:17111Field goal0–3
SFQ1 0:0023Field goal0–3
SFQ2 14:1412Field goal0–6
CARQ2 13:3437Punt0–6
SFQ2 12:333-8Punt0–6
CARQ2 10:31511Turnover0–6
SFQ2 8:58422Field goal0–9
CARQ2 6:16880Touchdown7–9
SFQ2 1:52616End of half7–9
CARQ3 15:00625Punt7–9
SFQ3 11:57313Punt7–9
CARQ3 9:251059Missed field goal7–9
SFQ3 3:41312Turnover7–9
CARQ3 1:4737Punt7–9
SFQ3 0:13512Punt7–9
CARQ4 13:3569Field goal10–9
SFQ4 10:0533Punt10–9
CARQ4 8:51622Punt10–9
SFQ4 5:25611Punt10–9
CARQ4 2:27619Punt10–9
SFQ4 1:022-6Turnover10–9
CARQ4 0:2300End of half10–9

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton16/3216901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams8465.81
Jonathan Stewart13413.20
Cam Newton8151.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith611630
Brandon LaFell48480
Ted Ginn24190
Greg Olsen13140
Domenik Hixon1190
DeAngelo Williams0200

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick11/229101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore16825.10
Colin Kaepernick4164.00
Kendall Hunter382.70
LaMichael James1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mario Manningham36300
Anquan Boldin35230
Frank Gore22210
Kyle Williams1250
Vernon Davis1220
Kendall Hunter0100
Vance McDonald0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.08