Closing spread
SF -6
Total
43
Model margin
+3.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.050EPA / play+0.034
- 42.1%Success rate41.8%
- +0.130EPA / dropback+0.156
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.110
- 7.3%Explosive rate10.6%
- +1.02CPOE-1.63
- 44.3%Third-down rate37.8%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 2.03Points / drive1.99
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 10–6 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. SF are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 16/32 | 169 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 6 | 11 | 63 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 11/22 | 91 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 82 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| LaMichael James | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Manningham | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.08