Closing spread
CAR -4.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play-0.041
- 41.3%Success rate41.2%
- +0.040EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.110
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.2%
- -2.85CPOE-3.27
- 43.2%Third-down rate39.5%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
- 1.87Points / drive1.75
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 10–6 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. SF are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 14/25 | 171 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 18 | 65 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Shepard | 2 | 2 | 53 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 1 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 24/35 | 193 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 6 | 10 | 81 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 6 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.07
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.48
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.29