2017 · Week 1

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

23·3

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brian Hoyer

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CAR -4.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge map49ers
  • -0.018EPA / play-0.041
  • 41.3%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.040EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.096EPA / rush-0.110
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -2.85CPOE-3.27
  • 43.2%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 55.8%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.75
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 10–6 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. SF are 5-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12CAR @ SF9–20SF
2022 · W5SF @ CAR37–15SF
2019 · W8CAR @ SF13–51SF
2016 · W2SF @ CAR27–46CAR
2013 · playoffsSF @ CAR23–10SF
2013 · W10CAR @ SF10–9CAR
2010 · W7SF @ CAR20–23CAR
2007 · W13SF @ CAR14–31CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–SF
CARQ1 15:00615Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:02746Punt0–0
CARQ1 7:4734Punt0–0
SFQ1 6:04418Turnover0–0
CARQ1 4:35342Touchdown7–0
SFQ1 3:00412Punt7–0
CARQ1 0:4537Punt7–0
SFQ2 14:074-1Punt7–0
CARQ2 12:14610Turnover7–0
SFQ2 9:46710Turnover on downs7–0
CARQ2 6:27727Field goal10–0
SFQ2 3:23630Turnover on downs10–0
CARQ2 0:42542Field goal13–0
SFQ3 15:00214Turnover13–0
CARQ3 14:25624Touchdown20–0
SFQ3 11:2434Punt20–0
CARQ3 10:041066Field goal23–0
SFQ3 3:11954Field goal23–3
CARQ3 0:0843Turnover23–3
SFQ4 13:371130Turnover on downs23–3
CARQ4 8:481050End of half23–3

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton14/2517121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart18653.60
Christian McCaffrey13473.60
Cam Newton630.50
Fozzy Whittaker111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Russell Shepard22531
Christian McCaffrey57380
Kelvin Benjamin15250
Devin Funchess22200
Greg Olsen24180
Jonathan Stewart22171
Ed Dickson0100
Damiere Byrd0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer24/3519301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde9455.00
Matt Breida4112.80
Brian Hoyer1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon610810
Carlos Hyde66320
George Kittle56270
Marquise Goodwin36210
Trent Taylor1180
Aldrick Robinson1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.07
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.48
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.29