Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
37
Model margin
+0.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play-0.084
- 39.6%Success rate38.6%
- +0.043EPA / dropback-0.016
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.207
- 9.3%Explosive rate6.4%
- 34.8%Third-down rate35.7%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.25Points / drive1.14
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.080EPA / play allowed-0.039
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 20/33 | 266 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 22 | 26 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Chris Warren | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Troy Aikman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernie Mills | 6 | 7 | 76 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 4 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Tim Lester | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Graham | 15/21 | 183 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Gary Brown | 10 | 23 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kent Graham | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 5 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| David Patten | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.13