Closing spread
DAL -4.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.109
- 42.9%Success rate47.2%
- +0.099EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.007
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.30CPOE+1.89
- 39.6%Third-down rate41.3%
- 56.3%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
- 2.06Points / drive2.53
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 30/41 | 450 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Skattebo | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jaxson Dart | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 9 | 13 | 167 | 2 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 8 | 10 | 142 | 1 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 3 | 61 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Cam Skattebo | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 38/52 | 361 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 18 | 97 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 1 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 9 | 11 | 112 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 9 | 12 | 78 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 5 | 9 | 68 | 1 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 4 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 6 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.49
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.78
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.24