2025 · Week 2 · Division

Final / OT

Giants

New York

QB Russell Wilson

37·40

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -4.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.109
  • 42.9%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.099EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.040EPA / rush-0.007
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.30CPOE+1.89
  • 39.6%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 56.3%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
  • 2.06Points / drive2.53
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL
2022 · W3DAL @ NYG23–16DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DAL
NYGQ1 15:0016110Field goal3–0
DALQ1 6:1139Punt3–0
NYGQ1 4:47760Field goal6–0
DALQ1 1:0532Punt6–0
NYGQ2 14:0936Punt6–0
DALQ2 12:14742Field goal6–3
NYGQ2 8:25570Touchdown13–3
DALQ2 5:371049Touchdown13–10
NYGQ2 2:1135Punt13–10
DALQ2 1:36942End of half13–10
DALQ3 15:0020Turnover13–10
NYGQ3 14:42830Turnover on downs13–10
DALQ3 10:20753Touchdown13–17
NYGQ3 7:20457Field goal16–17
DALQ3 5:381138Field goal16–20
NYGQ4 14:13539Touchdown23–20
DALQ4 12:071070Touchdown23–27
NYGQ4 6:14763Touchdown30–27
DALQ4 2:441171Touchdown30–34
NYGQ4 0:52363Touchdown37–34
DALQ4 0:25321Field goal37–37
DALOT624Punt37–37
NYGOT47Punt37–37
DALOT415Punt37–37
NYGOT2-4Turnover37–37
DALOT342Field goal37–40

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson30/4145031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Skattebo11454.11
Russell Wilson3237.70
Tyrone Tracy Jr.5153.00
Devin Singletary144.00
Jaxson Dart1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Nabers9131672
Wan'Dale Robinson8101421
Darius Slayton23610
Tyrone Tracy Jr.45360
Theo Johnson45340
Cam Skattebo23140
Devin Singletary11-40

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott38/5236121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams18975.41
Dak Prescott3175.70
Miles Sanders5153.01
KaVontae Turpin263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb9111120
Jake Ferguson912780
George Pickens59681
KaVontae Turpin44471
Javonte Williams67330
Jalen Tolbert24160
Miles Sanders2240
Brevyn Spann-Ford1130
Luke Schoonmaker0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.78
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+2.24