Closing spread
DAL -4.5
Total
39
Model margin
+3.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.089
- 41.1%Success rate41.4%
- -0.073EPA / dropback-0.067
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.128
- 6.8%Explosive rate7.7%
- -1.45CPOE-4.87
- 36.0%Third-down rate37.1%
- 47.5%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 1.28Points / drive1.68
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 21/32 | 178 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 4 | 57 | 14.3 | 1 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Malik Nabers | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 8 | 13 | 69 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 21/36 | 195 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 22 | 112 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KaVontae Turpin | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 7 | 16 | 1 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Jalen Brooks | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.29
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.58