2024 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Drew Lock

20·27

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Cooper Rush

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -4.5

Total

39

Model margin

+3.6est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.088EPA / play-0.089
  • 41.1%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.073EPA / dropback-0.067
  • -0.116EPA / rush-0.128
  • 6.8%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -1.45CPOE-4.87
  • 36.0%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 47.5%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.68
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL
2022 · W3DAL @ NYG23–16DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DAL
DALQ1 15:001160Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 9:431370Touchdown7–3
DALQ1 3:061270Field goal7–6
NYGQ2 11:4410Opp touchdown7–13
NYGQ2 11:2948Punt7–13
DALQ2 8:59531Turnover on downs7–13
NYGQ2 7:1532Punt7–13
DALQ2 6:0731Punt7–13
NYGQ2 5:1236Field goal10–13
DALQ2 3:21613Punt10–13
NYGQ2 1:5033Punt10–13
DALQ2 1:2940Punt10–13
NYGQ2 1:05714End of half10–13
NYGQ3 15:0038Turnover10–13
DALQ3 13:40638Touchdown10–20
NYGQ3 11:373-6Punt10–20
DALQ3 9:221152Touchdown10–27
NYGQ3 4:23956Field goal13–27
DALQ4 13:34733Punt13–27
NYGQ4 9:51410Punt13–27
DALQ4 6:59416Punt13–27
NYGQ4 4:391076Touchdown20–27
DALQ4 2:1846End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock21/3217801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Drew Lock45714.31
Tyrone Tracy Jr.9323.61
Devin Singletary7233.30
Malik Nabers144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Nabers813690
Theo Johnson55540
Tyrone Tracy Jr.23330
Darius Slayton2680
Jalin Hyatt2280
Wan'Dale Robinson2260
Devin Singletary0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cooper Rush21/3619510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle221125.11
Ezekiel Elliott144.00
Hunter Luepke341.30
KaVontae Turpin122.00
Cooper Rush500.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
KaVontae Turpin45530
Jalen Tolbert24410
CeeDee Lamb26390
Luke Schoonmaker56330
Brandin Cooks37161
Rico Dowdle33110
Jonathan Mingo1420
Jalen Brooks1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.29
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.58