Closing spread
DAL -5.5
Total
45
Model margin
+0.2est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.088
- 41.4%Success rate41.1%
- -0.067EPA / dropback-0.073
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.116
- 7.7%Explosive rate6.8%
- -4.87CPOE-1.45
- 37.1%Third-down rate36.0%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
- 1.68Points / drive1.28
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 22/27 | 221 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 7 | 8 | 98 | 1 |
| Jake Ferguson | 7 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| Hunter Luepke | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 29/40 | 281 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 14 | 24 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Malik Nabers | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 12 | 15 | 115 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 11 | 14 | 71 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.89
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.23