2024 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

20·15

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 74°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

DAL -5.5

Total

45

Model margin

+0.2est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapGiants
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.088
  • 41.4%Success rate41.1%
  • -0.067EPA / dropback-0.073
  • -0.128EPA / rush-0.116
  • 7.7%Explosive rate6.8%
  • -4.87CPOE-1.45
  • 37.1%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
  • 1.68Points / drive1.28
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL
2022 · W3DAL @ NYG23–16DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYG
DALQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:46766Field goal0–3
DALQ1 9:031495Touchdown7–3
NYGQ1 2:061255Field goal7–6
DALQ2 11:11570Touchdown14–6
NYGQ2 9:161547Field goal14–9
DALQ2 1:06615Punt14–9
NYGQ2 0:0600End of half14–9
NYGQ3 15:001077Field goal14–12
DALQ3 8:42838Field goal17–12
NYGQ3 5:0636Punt17–12
DALQ3 2:57410Punt17–12
NYGQ3 0:31938Field goal17–15
DALQ4 11:11948Field goal20–15
NYGQ4 6:54815Turnover on downs20–15
DALQ4 3:21613Missed field goal20–15
NYGQ4 0:2830Turnover20–15
DALQ4 0:0500End of half20–15

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott22/2722120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle11464.20
Ezekiel Elliott5193.80
CeeDee Lamb382.70
Hunter Luepke284.00
Dak Prescott2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb78981
Jake Ferguson77490
Jalen Tolbert33240
Brandin Cooks14160
Rico Dowdle11151
Hunter Luepke22140
Ezekiel Elliott1150

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones29/4028101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary14241.70
Daniel Jones430.80
Tyrone Tracy Jr.420.50
Eric Gray111.00
Malik Nabers1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Nabers12151150
Wan'Dale Robinson1114710
Darius Slayton35560
Tyrone Tracy Jr.11190
Devin Singletary11140
Theo Johnson1160
Jalin Hyatt0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

1.84%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.89
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.23