Closing spread
DAL -10.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.033EPA / play+0.031
- 45.0%Success rate45.2%
- +0.058EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.004EPA / rush-0.031
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.68CPOE-1.95
- 37.7%Third-down rate46.2%
- 71.3%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
- 2.02Points / drive2.26
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 21/35 | 228 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Gary Brightwell | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Richie James | 5 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Chris Myarick | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Lawrence Cager | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Gary Brightwell | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 21/30 | 261 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 16 | 92 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 18 | 60 | 3.3 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 6 | 11 | 106 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 5 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 3 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 4 | 31 | 2 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.35
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.05