2022 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

20·28

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -10.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.033EPA / play+0.031
  • 45.0%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.058EPA / dropback+0.082
  • -0.004EPA / rush-0.031
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +1.68CPOE-1.95
  • 37.7%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 71.3%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.26
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W3DAL @ NYG23–16DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DAL
NYGQ1 15:00427Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:46521Turnover on downs0–0
NYGQ1 11:35516Field goal3–0
DALQ1 9:44642Turnover3–0
NYGQ1 7:1036Punt3–0
DALQ1 5:581193Touchdown3–7
NYGQ2 14:551070Touchdown10–7
DALQ2 9:2832Punt10–7
NYGQ2 8:3032Punt10–7
DALQ2 7:311150Turnover10–7
NYGQ2 1:50839Field goal13–7
DALQ3 15:001580Touchdown13–14
NYGQ3 7:21620Turnover on downs13–14
DALQ3 4:07649Touchdown13–21
NYGQ3 2:02527Punt13–21
DALQ4 14:441190Touchdown13–28
NYGQ4 8:531143Turnover on downs13–28
DALQ4 3:1264Missed field goal13–28
NYGQ4 1:13650Touchdown20–28
DALQ4 0:0800End of half20–28

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones21/3522810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley11393.51
Gary Brightwell5316.20
Daniel Jones3144.70
Matt Breida263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton36630
Richie James56411
Isaiah Hodgins34310
Chris Myarick11230
Lawrence Cager12200
Gary Brightwell22180
Saquon Barkley46130
Tanner Hudson11100
Matt Breida1190

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott21/3026122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott16925.81
Tony Pollard18603.30
CeeDee Lamb2115.50
Dak Prescott242.00
Peyton Hendershot122.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb6111060
Michael Gallup58630
Jake Ferguson33570
Dalton Schultz44312
Ezekiel Elliott1130
Tony Pollard2210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.05