2023 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

40·0

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-4.1est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapGiants
  • +0.121EPA / play-0.165
  • 48.0%Success rate38.2%
  • +0.229EPA / dropback-0.143
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.205
  • 8.9%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +3.68CPOE+0.19
  • 49.6%Third-down rate30.9%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
  • 2.67Points / drive1.09
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL
2022 · W3DAL @ NYG23–16DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYG
NYGQ1 15:001052Opp touchdown6–0
NYGQ1 8:033-10Punt6–0
DALQ1 7:06872Field goal9–0
NYGQ1 3:213-9Opp touchdown16–0
NYGQ1 2:2233Punt16–0
DALQ1 0:211123Field goal19–0
NYGQ2 10:5510Turnover19–0
DALQ2 10:48633Touchdown26–0
NYGQ2 8:031552Missed field goal26–0
DALQ2 1:0534Punt26–0
NYGQ2 0:422-7End of half26–0
DALQ3 15:001067Touchdown33–0
NYGQ3 10:0179Punt33–0
DALQ3 5:1858Punt33–0
NYGQ3 2:48930Turnover on downs33–0
DALQ4 15:00850Touchdown40–0
NYGQ4 11:31124Turnover40–0
DALQ4 11:1932Punt40–0
NYGQ4 9:041321Turnover on downs40–0
DALQ4 3:1046Turnover on downs40–0
NYGQ4 1:1036End of half40–0

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott13/2414300
Cooper Rush0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard14705.02
Rico Dowdle6244.00
KaVontae Turpin3144.71
Deuce Vaughn681.30
Dak Prescott166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb44770
Brandin Cooks24220
Tony Pollard23120
KaVontae Turpin23110
Jake Ferguson27110
Michael Gallup12100
Peyton Hendershot0100
Jalen Tolbert0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones15/2810402
Tyrod Taylor2/2600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley12514.30
Daniel Jones13433.30
Matt Breida294.50
Gary Brightwell155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Waller35360
Isaiah Hodgins13240
Lawrence Cager22170
Darius Slayton35150
Saquon Barkley34120
Gary Brightwell2260
Parris Campbell1420
Daniel Bellinger1110
Sterling Shepard0100
Jalin Hyatt0100
Matt Breida11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.6%3.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.1%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.35
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.13