Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-4.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.121EPA / play-0.165
- 48.0%Success rate38.2%
- +0.229EPA / dropback-0.143
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.205
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.6%
- +3.68CPOE+0.19
- 49.6%Third-down rate30.9%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 2.67Points / drive1.09
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 13/24 | 143 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Rico Dowdle | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 4 | 77 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 2 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 15/28 | 104 | 0 | 2 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 2/2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 12 | 51 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Gary Brightwell | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Lawrence Cager | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Gary Brightwell | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.1%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.49
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.13