Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+7.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
5.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Cowboys
- OutMalik DavisRBHip· Limited
- DNPLuke SchoonmakerTENot injury related - personal matter
Giants
- QuestionableMalik NabersWRKnee· Full
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.142EPA / play+0.027
- 48.8%Success rate42.9%
- +0.203EPA / dropback+0.118
- +0.017EPA / rush-0.102
- 6.6%Explosive rate7.8%
- +1.17CPOE-2.00
- 48.7%Third-down rate44.9%
- 76.8%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 2.97Points / drive2.15
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 12:53 | 11 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 6:40 | 9 | 32 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q1 1:59 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q2 12:28 | 14 | 48 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NYG | Q2 5:44 | 8 | 64 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q2 1:50 | 6 | 20 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| NYG | Q2 0:49 | 6 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| DAL | Q2 0:20 | 3 | 13 | End of half | 7–14 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| DAL | Q3 6:59 | 14 | 63 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| NYG | Q3 0:37 | 13 | 70 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| DAL | Q4 7:26 | 9 | 59 | Touchdown | 20–28 |
| NYG | Q4 5:21 | 9 | 42 | End of half | 20–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 22/34 | 175 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 8 | 44 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 5 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 23/29 | 230 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Skattebo | 18 | 81 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Jaxson Dart | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | 8 | 8 | 78 | 2 |
| Malik Nabers | 6 | 9 | 69 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Malachi Fields | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 4 | 22 | 1 |
| Theo Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
5.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.6%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.68
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment+4.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.09