2025 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

17·34

Giants

New York

QB Jaxson Dart

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 33°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DAL -3

Total

50.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapGiants
  • +0.109EPA / play+0.043
  • 47.2%Success rate42.9%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback+0.099
  • -0.007EPA / rush-0.040
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +1.89CPOE-1.30
  • 41.3%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 61.6%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
  • 2.53Points / drive2.06
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL
2022 · W3DAL @ NYG23–16DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00611Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:28529Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 10:0332Field goal0–3
DALQ1 9:15861Field goal3–3
NYGQ1 5:21744Field goal3–6
DALQ1 1:17211Touchdown10–6
NYGQ1 0:281061Field goal10–9
DALQ2 9:451265Turnover on downs10–9
NYGQ2 2:491296Touchdown10–16
DALQ2 0:2000End of half10–16
DALQ3 15:0036Punt10–16
NYGQ3 12:35752Touchdown10–24
DALQ3 9:48640Missed field goal10–24
NYGQ3 6:51428Turnover10–24
DALQ3 5:051156Touchdown17–24
NYGQ4 14:571243Field goal17–27
DALQ4 9:2310Turnover17–27
NYGQ4 9:10628Touchdown17–34
DALQ4 5:47514Punt17–34
NYGQ4 4:20715Punt17–34
DALQ4 0:1915End of half17–34

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Milton III7/137301
Dak Prescott7/117000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaydon Blue16644.01
Joe Milton III44310.80
Phil Mafah5183.61
Hunter Luepke2126.00
KaVontae Turpin177.00
Dak Prescott2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ryan Flournoy57680
Brevyn Spann-Ford23300
Luke Schoonmaker11120
Phil Mafah22110
George Pickens1390
Jake Ferguson1250
CeeDee Lamb1140
Hunter Luepke1140
Jalen Tolbert0100
KaVontae Turpin0100
Jonathan Mingo0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jaxson Dart22/3223020
Gunner Olszewski0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.181035.70
Jaxson Dart5326.40
Devin Singletary9262.91

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gunner Olszewski891020
Tyrone Tracy Jr.89561
Daniel Bellinger22381
Darius Slayton49340
Chris Manhertz0100
Isaiah Hodgins0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.95