Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
50.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play+0.043
- 47.2%Success rate42.9%
- +0.177EPA / dropback+0.099
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.040
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.89CPOE-1.30
- 41.3%Third-down rate39.6%
- 61.6%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
- 2.53Points / drive2.06
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Milton III | 7/13 | 73 | 0 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 7/11 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaydon Blue | 16 | 64 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Joe Milton III | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 0 |
| Phil Mafah | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Hunter Luepke | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Flournoy | 5 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Phil Mafah | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 22/32 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 18 | 103 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jaxson Dart | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunner Olszewski | 8 | 9 | 102 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 8 | 9 | 56 | 1 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 2 | 2 | 38 | 1 |
| Darius Slayton | 4 | 9 | 34 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.95