Closing spread
DAL -17.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+6.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.165EPA / play+0.121
- 38.2%Success rate48.0%
- -0.143EPA / dropback+0.229
- -0.205EPA / rush-0.061
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.9%
- +0.19CPOE+3.68
- 30.9%Third-down rate49.6%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.09Points / drive2.67
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy DeVito | 14/27 | 86 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 13 | 66 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Tommy DeVito | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jashaun Corbin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Bellinger | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Jashaun Corbin | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Lawrence Cager | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Parris Campbell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 1 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 26/35 | 404 | 4 | 1 |
| Cooper Rush | 7/9 | 68 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 12 | 79 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 1 |
| Cooper Rush | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 9 | 10 | 173 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 11 | 14 | 151 | 1 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 2 | 70 | 1 |
| Jalen Brooks | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 4 | 7 | 26 | 1 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.4%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.49
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.19