2023 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Tommy DeVito

17·49

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -17.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+6.2est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.165EPA / play+0.121
  • 38.2%Success rate48.0%
  • -0.143EPA / dropback+0.229
  • -0.205EPA / rush-0.061
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +0.19CPOE+3.68
  • 30.9%Third-down rate49.6%
  • 45.8%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.09Points / drive2.67
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL
2022 · W3DAL @ NYG23–16DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DAL
DALQ1 15:001074Turnover on downs0–0
NYGQ1 10:1634Punt0–0
DALQ1 8:0433Punt0–0
NYGQ1 7:093-4Punt0–0
DALQ1 5:19541Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 3:38517Punt0–7
DALQ1 1:3635Turnover0–7
NYGQ2 15:0048Turnover on downs0–7
DALQ2 13:23896Touchdown0–14
NYGQ2 8:4831Punt0–14
DALQ2 6:36654Touchdown0–21
NYGQ2 3:4832Punt0–21
DALQ2 2:47895Touchdown0–28
NYGQ2 0:1600End of half0–28
NYGQ3 15:003-8Punt0–28
DALQ3 13:0338Punt0–28
NYGQ3 11:36881Touchdown7–28
DALQ3 8:07686Touchdown7–35
NYGQ3 4:4010Turnover7–35
DALQ3 4:33887Touchdown7–42
NYGQ3 1:29410Punt7–42
DALQ4 14:43617Turnover7–42
NYGQ4 10:5645Field goal10–42
DALQ4 8:541175Touchdown10–49
NYGQ4 2:141557Touchdown17–49
DALQ4 0:0600End of half17–49

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy DeVito14/278621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley13665.10
Tommy DeVito7415.90
Matt Breida133.00
Jashaun Corbin111.00
Wan'Dale Robinson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Daniel Bellinger23340
Darius Slayton34210
Jashaun Corbin33120
Lawrence Cager12101
Parris Campbell1160
Wan'Dale Robinson2360
Sterling Shepard1421
Isaiah Hodgins0200
Jalin Hyatt0100
Saquon Barkley13-50

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott26/3540441
Cooper Rush7/96801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle12796.61
Tony Pollard15553.70
Dak Prescott2178.51
CeeDee Lamb11414.01
Cooper Rush252.50
Deuce Vaughn1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks9101731
CeeDee Lamb11141511
Michael Gallup22701
Jalen Brooks44390
Jake Ferguson47261
Deuce Vaughn11110
Jalen Tolbert2520
Luke Schoonmaker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +17.57.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.73%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.4%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.19