Closing spread
IND -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.030
- 41.4%Success rate38.9%
- +0.193EPA / dropback+0.047
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.130
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.9%
- 39.4%Third-down rate34.6%
- 52.1%Red-zone TD rate40.9%
- 1.88Points / drive1.28
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.036EPA / play allowed-0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. NYJ are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 51 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 9:51 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 8:24 | 7 | 45 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| IND | Q1 3:34 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 3:14 | 5 | 20 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| IND | Q1 1:33 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–6 |
| NYJ | Q1 0:00 | 10 | 71 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| IND | Q2 9:15 | 6 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| NYJ | Q2 6:22 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 7–13 |
| IND | Q2 3:54 | 8 | 46 | Turnover on downs | 7–13 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:05 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–13 |
| IND | Q2 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–13 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 7–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 12:39 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 7–13 |
| IND | Q3 11:19 | 11 | 62 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 4:59 | 6 | 16 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| IND | Q3 1:49 | 11 | 48 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 12:06 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 13–13 |
| IND | Q4 11:23 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 13–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 7:50 | 6 | 47 | Turnover | 13–13 |
| IND | Q4 4:32 | 8 | 37 | Field goal | 16–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 0:14 | 2 | -12 | End of half | 16–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/35 | 210 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 111 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Dilger | 4 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 4 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison | 6 | 10 | 40 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 2 | 2 | 40 | 1 |
| Edgerrin James | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Paul Shields | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| E.G. Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Lucas | 16/30 | 137 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 23 | 128 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Chrebet | 5 | 12 | 51 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 5 | 11 | 45 | 0 |
| Quinn Early | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.72