2010 · WC

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

17·16

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -1

Total

44

Model margin

+2.7est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapColts
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.095
  • 41.8%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.015EPA / dropback+0.182
  • -0.056EPA / rush-0.067
  • 8.3%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -4.95CPOE+3.98
  • 40.2%Third-down rate44.8%
  • 43.6%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 1.69Points / drive2.12
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. IND are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11IND @ NYJ28–27IND
2021 · W9NYJ @ IND30–45IND
2020 · W3NYJ @ IND7–36IND
2018 · W6IND @ NYJ34–42NYJ
2016 · W13IND @ NYJ41–10IND
2015 · W2NYJ @ IND20–7NYJ
2012 · W6IND @ NYJ9–35NYJ
2009 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–30IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–IND
INDQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:29526Punt0–0
INDQ1 10:5639Punt0–0
NYJQ1 9:04613Punt0–0
INDQ1 6:0744Punt0–0
NYJQ1 4:2338Punt0–0
INDQ1 2:451147Punt0–0
NYJQ2 11:28641Punt0–0
INDQ2 8:09580Touchdown0–7
NYJQ2 5:251365Turnover0–7
INDQ2 0:4520End of half0–7
NYJQ3 15:001063Touchdown7–7
INDQ3 9:48850Field goal7–10
NYJQ3 4:531787Touchdown14–10
INDQ4 9:591267Field goal14–13
NYJQ4 4:37610Punt14–13
INDQ4 2:36748Field goal14–16
NYJQ4 0:53440Field goal17–16

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez18/3118901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LaDainian Tomlinson16825.12
Shonn Greene19703.70
Brad Smith2115.50
Mark Sanchez166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Braylon Edwards45620
Santonio Holmes47460
Dustin Keller39420
LaDainian Tomlinson45170
Jerricho Cotchery23170
Ben Hartsock1150
Matthew Mulligan0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning18/2622510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai13604.60
Dominic Rhodes14332.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon571121
Blair White68540
Jacob Tamme58460
Dominic Rhodes11120
Reggie Wayne1110
Joseph Addai0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.4%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.73