Closing spread
IND -1
Total
44
Model margin
+2.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.095
- 41.8%Success rate47.2%
- +0.015EPA / dropback+0.182
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.067
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.7%
- -4.95CPOE+3.98
- 40.2%Third-down rate44.8%
- 43.6%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 1.69Points / drive2.12
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. IND are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 18/31 | 189 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 16 | 82 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Shonn Greene | 19 | 70 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braylon Edwards | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 4 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 3 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Ben Hartsock | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Matthew Mulligan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 18/26 | 225 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 13 | 60 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 7 | 112 | 1 |
| Blair White | 6 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 5 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.73