2020 · Week 3

Final

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

7·36

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Philip Rivers

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -12.5

Total

44

Model margin

+5.5est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapColts
  • -0.116EPA / play+0.083
  • 40.9%Success rate46.8%
  • -0.098EPA / dropback+0.181
  • -0.146EPA / rush-0.048
  • 7.4%Explosive rate11.3%
  • -2.07CPOE-0.03
  • 34.4%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 41.2%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.24Points / drive2.35
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. IND are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11IND @ NYJ28–27IND
2021 · W9NYJ @ IND30–45IND
2018 · W6IND @ NYJ34–42NYJ
2016 · W13IND @ NYJ41–10IND
2015 · W2NYJ @ IND20–7NYJ
2012 · W6IND @ NYJ9–35NYJ
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–16NYJ
2009 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–30IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–IND
NYJQ1 15:0065Opp touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 12:251488Touchdown7–7
INDQ1 5:121272Touchdown7–14
NYJQ2 14:13419Punt7–14
INDQ2 11:29553Field goal7–17
NYJQ2 8:38752Turnover7–17
INDQ2 5:24745Punt7–17
NYJQ2 2:17724Punt7–17
INDQ2 0:44336Missed field goal7–17
INDQ3 15:00525Punt7–17
NYJQ3 11:5537Punt7–17
INDQ3 10:281055Touchdown7–24
NYJQ3 5:21419Punt7–24
INDQ3 3:17416Punt7–24
NYJQ3 1:2536Opp touchdown7–31
NYJQ4 15:00939Punt7–31
INDQ4 9:35723Punt7–31
NYJQ4 6:113-4Safety7–33
INDQ4 4:50428Field goal7–36
NYJQ4 2:0445Turnover on downs7–36
INDQ4 1:1300End of half7–36

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold17/2916813

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore15573.80
La'Mical Perine7243.40
Sam Darnold5204.00
Kalen Ballage284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Braxton Berrios44641
Kalen Ballage55440
Lawrence Cager24350
Chris Herndon35210
Frank Gore1150
Chris Hogan0300
Ryan Griffin0200
La'Mical Perine22-10

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers17/2121710
Jacoby Brissett2/41700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor13594.51
Jordan Wilkins9394.30
Nyheim Hines7213.00
Jacoby Brissett200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton33520
Mo Alie-Cox33501
Nyheim Hines45400
Zach Pascal24340
Michael Pittman34260
Daurice Fountain22230
Jordan Wilkins1160
Jonathan Taylor1130
Ashton Dulin0100
Noah Togiai0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

1.84%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.6%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.77
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.48