Closing spread
IND -12.5
Total
44
Model margin
+5.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play+0.083
- 40.9%Success rate46.8%
- -0.098EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.048
- 7.4%Explosive rate11.3%
- -2.07CPOE-0.03
- 34.4%Third-down rate39.7%
- 41.2%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.24Points / drive2.35
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. IND are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 17/29 | 168 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 0 |
| La'Mical Perine | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Berrios | 4 | 4 | 64 | 1 |
| Kalen Ballage | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Lawrence Cager | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Chris Herndon | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| La'Mical Perine | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 17/21 | 217 | 1 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2/4 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 13 | 59 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 3 | 52 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 3 | 3 | 50 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Daurice Fountain | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Noah Togiai | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.77
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.48