2021 · Week 9

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mike White

30·45

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Carson Wentz

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -10.5

Total

46

Model margin

+1.7est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapColts
  • -0.072EPA / play+0.060
  • 42.1%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.066EPA / dropback+0.055
  • -0.084EPA / rush+0.065
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -7.25CPOE-2.41
  • 37.8%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 1.70Points / drive2.35
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. IND are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11IND @ NYJ28–27IND
2020 · W3NYJ @ IND7–36IND
2018 · W6IND @ NYJ34–42NYJ
2016 · W13IND @ NYJ41–10IND
2015 · W2NYJ @ IND20–7NYJ
2012 · W6IND @ NYJ9–35NYJ
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–16NYJ
2009 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–30IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–IND
NYJQ1 15:00627Punt0–0
INDQ1 11:43983Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 6:55875Touchdown7–7
INDQ1 3:32976Touchdown7–14
NYJQ2 13:24521Turnover7–14
INDQ2 11:03946Touchdown7–21
NYJQ2 4:59765Field goal10–21
INDQ2 1:46975Touchdown10–28
NYJQ2 0:1200End of half10–28
INDQ3 15:00983Turnover on downs10–28
NYJQ3 9:3037Punt10–28
INDQ3 8:00337Touchdown10–35
NYJQ3 6:5435Punt10–41
INDQ3 6:12178Touchdown10–42
NYJQ3 6:02675Touchdown16–42
INDQ3 3:0031Punt16–42
NYJQ3 1:111166Touchdown23–42
INDQ4 11:08654Field goal23–45
NYJQ4 8:011370Touchdown30–45
INDQ4 3:3530Punt30–45
NYJQ4 3:091376Turnover30–45
INDQ4 0:4500End of half30–45

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Johnson27/4131731
Mike White7/119510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Carter13493.80
Ty Johnson4215.30
Josh Johnson4184.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Elijah Moore78842
Keelan Cole58660
Jeff Smith34400
Ty Johnson23401
Jamison Crowder57380
Tyler Kroft23380
Michael Carter12370
Ryan Griffin47281
Denzel Mims15200
Trevon Wesco22160
Braxton Berrios2350

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz22/3027230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor191729.12
Nyheim Hines67412.31
Carson Wentz4133.30
Sam Ehlinger111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman56641
Zach Pascal47580
Nyheim Hines46340
Mo Alie-Cox11280
Jonathan Taylor22280
Kylen Granson11270
Ashton Dulin22230
Dezmon Patmon1170
Jack Doyle1211

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.57.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

1.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.18
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.68