Closing spread
IND -10.5
Total
46
Model margin
+1.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play+0.060
- 42.1%Success rate44.6%
- -0.066EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.084EPA / rush+0.065
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.8%
- -7.25CPOE-2.41
- 37.8%Third-down rate41.9%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.70Points / drive2.35
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. IND are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 27/41 | 317 | 3 | 1 |
| Mike White | 7/11 | 95 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Moore | 7 | 8 | 84 | 2 |
| Keelan Cole | 5 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 3 | 40 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 5 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 4 | 7 | 28 | 1 |
| Denzel Mims | 1 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Trevon Wesco | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 22/30 | 272 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 19 | 172 | 9.1 | 2 |
| Nyheim Hines | 6 | 74 | 12.3 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Sam Ehlinger | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 6 | 64 | 1 |
| Zach Pascal | 4 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Dezmon Patmon | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-4.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.68