Closing spread
NYJ -1
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play-0.069
- 45.9%Success rate40.5%
- +0.127EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.070
- 8.4%Explosive rate9.3%
- +1.05CPOE-4.70
- 42.8%Third-down rate36.5%
- 72.9%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 2.10Points / drive1.40
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. NYJ are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 22/28 | 278 | 4 | 0 |
| Scott Tolzien | 1/1 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 20 | 79 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Josh Ferguson | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Scott Tolzien | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 9 | 10 | 146 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 4 | 4 | 72 | 3 |
| Jack Doyle | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 4 | 6 | 26 | 1 |
| Erik Swoope | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Petty | 11/25 | 135 | 1 | 2 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5/12 | 81 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 12 | 61 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 3 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 4 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Brandon Bostick | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charone Peake | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.45
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.05