2016 · Week 13

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

41·10

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1

Total

48.5

Model margin

+0.1est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJets
  • +0.045EPA / play-0.069
  • 45.9%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.070
  • 8.4%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +1.05CPOE-4.70
  • 42.8%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 72.9%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
  • 2.10Points / drive1.40
  • 2.1%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. NYJ are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11IND @ NYJ28–27IND
2021 · W9NYJ @ IND30–45IND
2020 · W3NYJ @ IND7–36IND
2018 · W6IND @ NYJ34–42NYJ
2015 · W2NYJ @ IND20–7NYJ
2012 · W6IND @ NYJ9–35NYJ
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–16NYJ
2009 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–30IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:56742Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 10:2336Punt7–0
INDQ1 9:32469Touchdown14–0
NYJQ1 7:45423Punt14–0
INDQ1 4:53933Punt14–0
NYJQ2 15:00979Field goal14–3
INDQ2 10:31540Field goal17–3
NYJQ2 8:1634Punt17–3
INDQ2 6:38970Touchdown24–3
NYJQ2 1:1824Turnover24–3
INDQ2 0:44214Turnover24–3
NYJQ2 0:2900End of half24–3
INDQ3 15:001175Touchdown31–3
NYJQ3 8:54721Punt31–3
INDQ3 6:19943Field goal34–3
NYJQ3 1:0827Turnover34–3
INDQ3 0:1426Touchdown41–3
NYJQ4 14:541175Touchdown41–10
INDQ4 11:1937Punt41–10
NYJQ4 9:01632Turnover on downs41–10
INDQ4 6:32925Turnover on downs41–10
NYJQ4 1:4710Turnover41–10
INDQ4 1:4100End of half41–10

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck22/2827840
Scott Tolzien1/11100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore20794.00
Andrew Luck3268.70
Robert Turbin6162.71
Josh Ferguson5112.20
Phillip Dorsett177.00
Jordan Todman231.50
Scott Tolzien3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton9101460
Dwayne Allen44723
Jack Doyle44300
Donte Moncrief46261
Erik Swoope23150
Frank Gore0100
Phillip Dorsett0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Petty11/2513512
Ryan Fitzpatrick5/128101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte9252.80
C.J. Spiller252.50
Ryan Fitzpatrick231.50
Bilal Powell133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen412611
Matt Forte34540
Brandon Marshall48430
Austin Seferian-Jenkins25290
Brandon Bostick11120
Quincy Enunwa12100
C.J. Spiller1270
Bilal Powell0100
Charone Peake0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.2%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.05