2015 · Week 2

Final

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

20·7

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -6

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapColts
  • +0.025EPA / play-0.083
  • 41.9%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback-0.023
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.206
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.0%
  • -1.27CPOE-4.10
  • 40.9%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 70.2%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.90Points / drive1.47
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. IND are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11IND @ NYJ28–27IND
2021 · W9NYJ @ IND30–45IND
2020 · W3NYJ @ IND7–36IND
2018 · W6IND @ NYJ34–42NYJ
2016 · W13IND @ NYJ41–10IND
2012 · W6IND @ NYJ9–35NYJ
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–16NYJ
2009 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–30IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–IND
NYJQ1 15:00633Punt0–0
INDQ1 11:31712Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 8:2855Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 6:44665Missed field goal7–0
NYJQ1 4:023-1Punt7–0
INDQ1 2:5731Punt7–0
NYJQ1 1:34656Punt7–0
INDQ2 13:3634Punt7–0
NYJQ2 11:58722Turnover7–0
INDQ2 8:2339Punt7–0
NYJQ2 7:03949Field goal10–0
INDQ2 1:51416Turnover10–0
NYJQ2 1:03514Missed field goal10–0
INDQ3 15:001989Turnover10–0
NYJQ3 5:1336Punt10–0
INDQ3 3:4232Turnover10–0
NYJQ3 2:52746Punt10–0
INDQ4 14:068101Touchdown10–7
NYJQ4 10:07875Touchdown17–7
INDQ4 6:20521Turnover17–7
NYJQ4 4:35739Field goal20–7
INDQ4 0:57323End of half20–7

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick22/3424421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory14574.10
Bilal Powell12383.20
Ryan Fitzpatrick166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall7101011
Eric Decker811971
Quincy Enunwa13270
Bilal Powell45160
Chris Ivory2230
Chris Owusu0300

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck21/3725013

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore15573.80
Andrew Luck4246.00
Josh Robinson5122.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donte Moncrief781221
T.Y. Hilton47450
Andre Johnson37270
Josh Robinson55270
Phillip Dorsett16250
Frank Gore1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.22