Closing spread
IND -6
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.083
- 41.9%Success rate40.1%
- +0.126EPA / dropback-0.023
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.206
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.0%
- -1.27CPOE-4.10
- 40.9%Third-down rate40.5%
- 70.2%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.90Points / drive1.47
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. IND are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 22/34 | 244 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 7 | 10 | 101 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 8 | 11 | 97 | 1 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 1 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Owusu | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 21/37 | 250 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Josh Robinson | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte Moncrief | 7 | 8 | 122 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 3 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Josh Robinson | 5 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.22