Closing spread
NYJ -4
Total
43
Model margin
-2.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play-0.001
- 40.6%Success rate43.0%
- -0.025EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.108
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.8%
- -5.38CPOE-1.89
- 37.8%Third-down rate39.7%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.87Points / drive1.85
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. NYJ are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 20/30 | 272 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 24 | 57 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Anthony Richardson | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Downs | 5 | 5 | 84 | 1 |
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 4 | 74 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/29 | 184 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 16 | 78 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 6 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 7 | 7 | 43 | 1 |
| Garrett Wilson | 4 | 8 | 18 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Kenny Yeboah | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Malachi Corley | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.5%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.81
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.09