2024 · Week 11

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Joe Flacco

28·27

Jets

New York

QB Aaron Rodgers

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NYJ -4

Total

43

Model margin

-2.1est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJets
  • -0.045EPA / play-0.001
  • 40.6%Success rate43.0%
  • -0.025EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.108
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -5.38CPOE-1.89
  • 37.8%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.85
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. NYJ are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W9NYJ @ IND30–45IND
2020 · W3NYJ @ IND7–36IND
2018 · W6IND @ NYJ34–42NYJ
2016 · W13IND @ NYJ41–10IND
2015 · W2NYJ @ IND20–7NYJ
2012 · W6IND @ NYJ9–35NYJ
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–16NYJ
2009 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–30IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:41857Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 9:0731Punt3–0
INDQ1 8:0639Punt3–0
NYJQ1 5:4831Punt3–0
INDQ1 3:38866Touchdown10–0
NYJQ2 14:1149Turnover on downs10–0
INDQ2 12:06910Field goal13–0
NYJQ2 6:0839Punt13–0
INDQ2 3:4632Punt13–0
NYJQ2 2:17776Touchdown13–7
INDQ2 0:4047Turnover on downs13–7
INDQ3 15:002-11Turnover13–7
NYJQ3 14:09225Touchdown13–14
INDQ3 13:221046Field goal16–14
NYJQ3 7:4135Punt16–14
INDQ3 6:0633Punt16–14
NYJQ3 4:323-2Field goal16–17
INDQ3 2:5543Punt16–17
NYJQ3 0:57663Touchdown16–24
INDQ4 13:03870Touchdown22–24
NYJQ4 10:111263Field goal22–27
INDQ4 2:41670Touchdown28–27
NYJQ4 0:463-4End of half28–27

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Anthony Richardson20/3027210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor24572.40
Anthony Richardson10323.22
Adonai Mitchell122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Downs55841
Alec Pierce34740
Michael Pittman58460
Adonai Mitchell12330
Mo Alie-Cox23170
Andrew Ogletree1180
Kylen Granson1240
Jonathan Taylor1230
Trey Sermon1130

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/2918420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall16784.91
Aaron Rodgers177.00
Braelon Allen263.00
Tyler Conklin100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams67720
Breece Hall77431
Garrett Wilson48180
Xavier Gipson11170
Kenny Yeboah11111
Malachi Corley11100
Tyler Conklin1270
Jeremy Ruckert1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.5%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.81
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.09