2012 · Week 6

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

9·35

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 65°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJets
  • +0.035EPA / play-0.101
  • 45.1%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback-0.139
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.054
  • 9.1%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -4.46CPOE-5.39
  • 42.3%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 59.8%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.20
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. NYJ are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11IND @ NYJ28–27IND
2021 · W9NYJ @ IND30–45IND
2020 · W3NYJ @ IND7–36IND
2018 · W6IND @ NYJ34–42NYJ
2016 · W13IND @ NYJ41–10IND
2015 · W2NYJ @ IND20–7NYJ
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–16NYJ
2009 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–30IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NYJ
INDQ1 15:00740Punt0–0
NYJQ1 10:4136Punt0–0
INDQ1 9:15819Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 6:021480Touchdown3–7
INDQ2 14:1336Turnover3–7
NYJQ2 12:51630Touchdown3–14
INDQ2 9:471251Field goal6–14
NYJQ2 6:061175Touchdown6–21
INDQ2 0:2700End of half6–21
NYJQ3 15:0034Punt6–21
INDQ3 14:04728Punt6–21
NYJQ3 10:3738Punt6–21
INDQ3 9:10814Punt6–21
NYJQ3 5:30791Touchdown6–28
INDQ3 1:36847Field goal9–28
NYJQ4 14:40823Punt9–28
INDQ4 9:201048Turnover9–28
NYJQ4 6:39421Punt9–28
INDQ4 4:2327Turnover9–28
NYJQ4 3:52514Touchdown9–35
INDQ4 1:05539Turnover9–35
NYJQ4 0:0200End of half9–35

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck22/4428002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Vick Ballard8253.10
Delone Carter4133.30
Mewelde Moore351.70
Donnie Avery1-1-1.00
Andrew Luck1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne510870
Donnie Avery413600
Coby Fleener46420
Dwayne Allen24330
T.Y. Hilton34310
Vick Ballard23170
LaVon Brazill11140
Nathan Palmer12-40

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez11/188220
Tim Tebow1/12300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene321615.03
Joe McKnight37123.70
Bilal Powell4143.50
Tim Tebow471.80
Mark Sanchez1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Kerley36240
Chaz Schilens24230
Stephen Hill33231
Dustin Keller1160
Jason Hill1151
Bilal Powell1210
Jeff Cumberland0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.23