Closing spread
NYJ -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.101
- 45.1%Success rate41.7%
- +0.094EPA / dropback-0.139
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.054
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.8%
- -4.46CPOE-5.39
- 42.3%Third-down rate36.9%
- 59.8%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
- 1.62Points / drive1.20
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. NYJ are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 22/44 | 280 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vick Ballard | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 10 | 87 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 4 | 13 | 60 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Vick Ballard | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Nathan Palmer | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 11/18 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 1/1 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 32 | 161 | 5.0 | 3 |
| Joe McKnight | 3 | 71 | 23.7 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Kerley | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Chaz Schilens | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Stephen Hill | 3 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Dustin Keller | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jason Hill | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.23