2018 · Week 6

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

34·42

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 60°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

-3.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJets
  • +0.059EPA / play-0.130
  • 48.0%Success rate37.1%
  • +0.141EPA / dropback-0.087
  • -0.097EPA / rush-0.196
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +0.63CPOE-5.42
  • 50.5%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.47
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. NYJ are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11IND @ NYJ28–27IND
2021 · W9NYJ @ IND30–45IND
2020 · W3NYJ @ IND7–36IND
2016 · W13IND @ NYJ41–10IND
2015 · W2NYJ @ IND20–7NYJ
2012 · W6IND @ NYJ9–35NYJ
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–16NYJ
2009 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–30IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NYJ
INDQ1 15:0020Opp touchdown0–7
INDQ1 14:48685Touchdown7–7
NYJQ1 12:161269Field goal7–10
INDQ1 4:3337Punt7–10
NYJQ1 2:2036Turnover7–10
INDQ1 0:47727Field goal10–10
NYJQ2 13:2519Turnover10–10
INDQ2 13:15528Field goal13–10
NYJQ2 11:24417Punt13–10
INDQ2 8:3938Turnover13–10
NYJQ2 7:22843Touchdown13–17
INDQ2 2:35212Turnover13–17
NYJQ2 1:544-3Field goal13–20
INDQ2 1:2532Punt13–20
NYJQ2 0:42458Field goal13–23
NYJQ3 15:00572Touchdown13–30
INDQ3 12:03780Touchdown20–30
NYJQ3 8:44856Field goal20–33
INDQ3 3:531479Touchdown27–33
NYJQ4 14:52933Field goal27–36
INDQ4 9:40531Turnover27–36
NYJQ4 7:5938Field goal27–39
INDQ4 5:5546Turnover on downs27–39
NYJQ4 5:1769Field goal27–42
INDQ4 3:19863Touchdown34–42
NYJQ4 1:5100End of half34–42

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck23/4330143

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack12897.40
Nyheim Hines3144.70
Robert Turbin4102.50
Zach Pascal188.00
Andrew Luck273.50
Eric Ebron1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Ebron47711
Chester Rogers410551
Marcus Johnson23521
Zach Pascal57350
Mo Alie-Cox12340
Ryan Grant25240
Nyheim Hines23210
Marlon Mack1240
Robert Turbin1130
Erik Swoope1221

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold24/3028021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell16593.70
Isaiah Crowell13403.10
Sam Darnold681.30
Quincy Enunwa100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Kearse910940
Terrelle Pryor56571
Chris Herndon22561
Robbie Chosen35390
Neal Sterling22130
Isaiah Crowell22120
Quincy Enunwa1190
Bilal Powell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

6.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.3%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.77
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-3.27