Closing spread
NYJ -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
-3.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play-0.130
- 48.0%Success rate37.1%
- +0.141EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.196
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- +0.63CPOE-5.42
- 50.5%Third-down rate32.2%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
- 2.25Points / drive1.47
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. NYJ are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 23/43 | 301 | 4 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 12 | 89 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 7 | 71 | 1 |
| Chester Rogers | 4 | 10 | 55 | 1 |
| Marcus Johnson | 2 | 3 | 52 | 1 |
| Zach Pascal | 5 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Erik Swoope | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 24/30 | 280 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 16 | 59 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 13 | 40 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Kearse | 9 | 10 | 94 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 5 | 6 | 57 | 1 |
| Chris Herndon | 2 | 2 | 56 | 1 |
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Neal Sterling | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
6.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.3%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.77
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-3.27