Closing spread
NE -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play-0.107
- 37.3%Success rate37.4%
- -0.071EPA / dropback-0.062
- -0.186EPA / rush-0.179
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.8%
- 34.2%Third-down rate35.1%
- 42.4%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.17Points / drive1.19
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.102EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 24/42 | 240 | 2 | 1 |
| Dan Marino | 1/3 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Collins | 20 | 59 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 6 | 54 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Martin | 7 | 15 | 118 | 1 |
| Troy Drayton | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 6 | 7 | 33 | 1 |
| O.J. McDuffie | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Cecil Collins | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 17/36 | 225 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Brisby | 3 | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 4 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 3 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Terry Allen | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.53