1999 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Dan Marino

31·30

Patriots

New England

QB Drew Bledsoe

Foxboro Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NE -2.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.116EPA / play-0.107
  • 37.3%Success rate37.4%
  • -0.071EPA / dropback-0.062
  • -0.186EPA / rush-0.179
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.8%
  • 34.2%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 42.4%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
  • 1.17Points / drive1.19
  • 2.9%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.102EPA / play allowed-0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 30–25 since 1999

NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8NE @ MIA24–19NE
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NE
MIAQ1 15:00519Opp touchdown0–7
NEQ1 12:0600Opp touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 12:0634Punt0–7
NEQ1 10:30411Punt0–7
MIAQ1 8:5122Opp touchdown0–14
NEQ1 8:0400Opp touchdown0–14
MIAQ1 8:0430Punt0–14
NEQ1 5:5135Punt0–14
MIAQ1 4:23517Field goal3–14
NEQ1 1:0418Turnover3–14
MIAQ1 0:45829Field goal6–14
NEQ2 11:2939Punt6–14
MIAQ2 9:10358Touchdown13–14
NEQ2 7:4834Field goal13–17
MIAQ2 6:401022Field goal16–17
NEQ2 1:26975Touchdown16–24
NEQ2 0:2300Touchdown16–24
MIAQ2 0:23125Field goal19–24
NEQ2 0:0200End of half19–24
NEQ3 15:00753Field goal19–27
MIAQ3 12:2333Punt19–27
NEQ3 11:0735Turnover19–27
MIAQ3 9:573-15Punt19–27
NEQ3 8:3148Punt19–27
MIAQ3 6:431568Field goal22–27
NEQ4 13:25959Field goal22–30
MIAQ4 9:05521Punt22–30
NEQ4 6:4830Punt22–30
MIAQ4 5:4685Field goal25–30
NEQ4 2:4531Punt25–30
MIAQ4 2:101259Touchdown31–30
NEQ4 0:23421End of half31–30

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Damon Huard24/4224021
Dan Marino1/3801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cecil Collins20593.00
Damon Huard6549.00
Stanley Pritchett382.70
J.J. Johnson2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Martin7151181
Troy Drayton45490
Stanley Pritchett67331
O.J. McDuffie35200
J.J. Johnson22160
Cecil Collins1250
Oronde Gadsden1540

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe17/3622511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terry Allen10191.90
Lamont Warren11818.00
Drew Bledsoe166.00
Kevin Faulk231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vincent Brisby34680
Shawn Jefferson46650
Tony Simmons37491
Terry Allen22180
Lamont Warren35170
Ben Coates2680
Terry Glenn0500
Rod Rutledge0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.53