Closing spread
MIA -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
+5.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play-0.040
- 42.5%Success rate44.3%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.187EPA / rush-0.246
- 7.0%Explosive rate7.3%
- +1.54CPOE+3.08
- 35.0%Third-down rate35.4%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.51Points / drive1.92
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 22/37 | 222 | 1 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 4 | 59 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Baker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 29/40 | 317 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 8 | 9 | 144 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 9 | 11 | 87 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 3 | 4 | 24 | 2 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.1%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.59
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.30