2024 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

15·34

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

MIA -7.5

Total

46

Model margin

+5.3est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.081EPA / play-0.040
  • 42.5%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.187EPA / rush-0.246
  • 7.0%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +1.54CPOE+3.08
  • 35.0%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.92
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 29–25 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE
2022 · W1NE @ MIA7–20MIA
2021 · W18NE @ MIA24–33MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–MIA
NEQ1 15:00314Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:22419Punt0–0
NEQ1 10:331280Missed field goal0–0
MIAQ1 3:07860Touchdown0–7
NEQ2 14:103-15Punt0–7
MIAQ2 12:37966Touchdown0–14
NEQ2 7:50411Punt0–14
MIAQ2 6:031080Touchdown0–21
NEQ2 1:503-5Punt0–21
MIAQ2 1:28656Field goal0–24
NEQ2 0:0200End of half0–24
MIAQ3 15:0034Punt0–24
NEQ3 12:561242Punt0–24
MIAQ3 8:04728Punt0–24
NEQ3 4:18421Turnover0–24
MIAQ3 2:19225Touchdown0–31
NEQ3 1:37870Touchdown7–31
MIAQ4 13:4334Punt7–31
NEQ4 12:40810Turnover on downs7–31
MIAQ4 11:0120Opp touchdown15–31
MIAQ4 10:10612Punt15–31
NEQ4 6:19417Turnover15–31
MIAQ4 5:13521Field goal15–34
NEQ4 3:33625Turnover on downs15–34
MIAQ4 1:5500End of half15–34

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye22/3722211
Kendrick Bourne0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson6315.20
Drake Maye5265.20
JaMycal Hasty11515.00
Rhamondre Stevenson8131.60
DeMario Douglas111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeMario Douglas57620
Austin Hooper44591
Hunter Henry58440
Kendrick Bourne35300
Antonio Gibson12140
Ja'Lynn Polk1270
Kayshon Boutte1460
JaMycal Hasty2200
Rhamondre Stevenson0200
Javon Baker0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa29/4031740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane10323.20
Jaylen Wright7284.00
Raheem Mostert252.50
Malik Washington122.00
Jonnu Smith100.00
Tua Tagovailoa3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle891441
Jonnu Smith911871
Tyreek Hill56480
De'Von Achane34242
Durham Smythe1180
Julian Hill1280
Malik Washington1210
Odell Beckham Jr.0300
Jaylen Wright0100
Raheem Mostert11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.1%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.59
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.30