Closing spread
NE -14
Total
44.5
Model margin
+7.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Dolphins
- OutJason SandersKHip· Limited
- OutMinkah FitzpatrickSCalf· DNP
- DoubtfulDe'Von AchaneRBShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableAaron BrewerCNeck· Full
- QuestionableAustin JacksonTBack· Limited
- QuestionableChop RobinsonLBConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableJaylen WaddleWRRibs· Limited
- QuestionableJordyn BrooksLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableQuinton BellLBIllness· DNP
Patriots
- OutHarold Landry IIILBKnee· DNP
- OutJared WilsonGConcussion· DNP
- OutKhyiris TongaDTFoot· DNP
- OutRobert SpillaneLBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableCharles WoodsCBFoot· Limited
- QuestionableJack WestoverFBAnkle· Limited
- LimitedAlex AustinCBWrist
- LimitedHunter HenryTEKnee
- LimitedStefon DiggsWRNot injury related - resting player
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.021EPA / play+0.154
- 42.1%Success rate48.2%
- -0.016EPA / dropback+0.308
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.089
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.5%
- +1.82CPOE+10.94
- 34.1%Third-down rate43.3%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 1.92Points / drive2.47
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 13:14 | 12 | 57 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| NE | Q1 5:50 | 9 | 84 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| MIA | Q1 0:55 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| NE | Q2 10:14 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–14 |
| MIA | Q2 9:40 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–14 |
| NE | Q2 7:33 | 4 | 14 | Turnover on downs | 7–14 |
| MIA | Q2 5:02 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| NE | Q2 4:27 | 7 | 32 | Missed field goal | 7–14 |
| MIA | Q2 1:31 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| NE | Q2 0:28 | 3 | 27 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 30 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| NE | Q3 11:38 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| MIA | Q3 7:30 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 10–24 |
| NE | Q3 4:24 | 4 | 63 | Touchdown | 10–31 |
| MIA | Q3 2:18 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 10–31 |
| NE | Q3 0:39 | 5 | 51 | Touchdown | 10–38 |
| MIA | Q4 12:39 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 10–38 |
| NE | Q4 11:01 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–38 |
| MIA | Q4 9:26 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 10–38 |
| NE | Q4 7:47 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–38 |
| MIA | Q4 5:45 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–38 |
| NE | Q4 4:48 | 6 | 26 | End of half | 10–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Ewers | 16/23 | 137 | 1 | 1 |
| Zach Wilson | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Wright | 13 | 23 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 9 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Quinn Ewers | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Wease Jr. | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Tahj Washington | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 3 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 14/18 | 191 | 1 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 3/4 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 7 | 131 | 18.7 | 2 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Drake Maye | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Efton Chism III | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jack Westover | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.3%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.91
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.37