Closing spread
NE -14
Total
44.5
Model margin
+7.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.021EPA / play+0.154
- 42.1%Success rate48.2%
- -0.016EPA / dropback+0.308
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.089
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.5%
- +1.82CPOE+10.94
- 34.1%Third-down rate43.3%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 1.92Points / drive2.47
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Ewers | 16/23 | 137 | 1 | 1 |
| Zach Wilson | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Wright | 13 | 23 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 9 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Quinn Ewers | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Wease Jr. | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Tahj Washington | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 3 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 14/18 | 191 | 1 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 3/4 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 7 | 131 | 18.7 | 2 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Drake Maye | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Efton Chism III | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jack Westover | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.3%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.91
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.37