Closing spread
MIA -7.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Patriots
- OutCalvin AndersonTIllness· DNP
- QuestionableChristian BarmoreDTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableDeatrich WiseDEShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableJonathan JonesCBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJosh UcheLBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableKeion WhiteDEConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableShaun WadeCBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableTrenton BrownTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableVederian LoweTAnkle· Limited
Dolphins
- QuestionableAlec IngoldFBFoot· Limited
- QuestionableCam SmithCBFoot· Limited
- QuestionableConnor WilliamsCGroin· Limited
- QuestionableJalen RamseyCBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJevon HollandSConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableNik NeedhamCBAchilles· Limited
- QuestionableRaheem MostertRBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRiver CracraftWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableXavien HowardCBGroin· Limited
- DNPBraxton BerriosWRNot injury related - personal matter
- DNPRobert JonesGNot injury related - personal matter
- LimitedJaylen WaddleWRBack
- LimitedKader KohouCBNeck
- LimitedTyreek HillWRHip
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.189EPA / play+0.095
- 38.9%Success rate47.3%
- -0.226EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.009
- 5.5%Explosive rate11.5%
- -3.39CPOE+4.40
- 30.8%Third-down rate42.5%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.00Points / drive2.34
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 13:03 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 9:55 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 6:35 | 4 | 10 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 4:26 | 3 | 30 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 3:32 | 6 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NE | Q1 0:22 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q2 13:35 | 16 | 43 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| NE | Q2 6:10 | 9 | 52 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| MIA | Q2 1:48 | 8 | 38 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| NE | Q2 0:26 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–17 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| NE | Q3 14:55 | 3 | -1 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| MIA | Q3 12:45 | 9 | 82 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| NE | Q3 7:35 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 10–24 |
| MIA | Q3 6:06 | 10 | 42 | Punt | 10–24 |
| NE | Q3 1:11 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–24 |
| MIA | Q4 14:39 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–24 |
| NE | Q4 13:47 | 14 | 86 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| MIA | Q4 8:30 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–31 |
| NE | Q4 2:43 | 4 | -4 | Turnover on downs | 17–31 |
| MIA | Q4 1:52 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 19/29 | 161 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 5 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Jalen Reagor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 30/45 | 324 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 7 | 12 | 121 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 8 | 13 | 112 | 1 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.46