Closing spread
MIA -7.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.189EPA / play+0.095
- 38.9%Success rate47.3%
- -0.226EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.009
- 5.5%Explosive rate11.5%
- -3.39CPOE+4.40
- 30.8%Third-down rate42.5%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.00Points / drive2.34
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 19/29 | 161 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 5 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Jalen Reagor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 30/45 | 324 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 7 | 12 | 121 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 8 | 13 | 112 | 1 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.46