Closing spread
MIA -2
Total
37
Model margin
+2.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.081
- 44.3%Success rate42.5%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.246EPA / rush-0.187
- 7.3%Explosive rate7.0%
- +3.08CPOE+1.54
- 35.4%Third-down rate35.0%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.92Points / drive1.51
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 18/31 | 194 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Wright | 13 | 86 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 19 | 80 | 4.2 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 10 | 69 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 5 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 18/34 | 160 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 12 | 89 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 6 | 52 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas | 6 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 1 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.59
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.60
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.80