2024 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tyler Huntley

15·10

Patriots

New England

QB Jacoby Brissett

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 65°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

MIA -2

Total

37

Model margin

+2.8est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.040EPA / play-0.081
  • 44.3%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.246EPA / rush-0.187
  • 7.3%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +3.08CPOE+1.54
  • 35.4%Third-down rate35.0%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.92Points / drive1.51
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 30–25 since 1999

NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8NE @ MIA24–19NE
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE
2022 · W1NE @ MIA7–20MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NE
MIAQ1 15:00738Field goal3–0
NEQ1 10:393-5Punt3–0
MIAQ1 8:2759Turnover3–0
NEQ1 6:11443Touchdown3–7
MIAQ1 3:55847Missed field goal3–7
NEQ2 15:00419Punt3–7
MIAQ2 12:54621Punt3–7
NEQ2 10:31728Missed field goal3–7
MIAQ2 6:09952Punt3–7
NEQ2 1:5038Punt3–7
MIAQ2 0:55616Turnover on downs3–7
NEQ2 0:2835Punt3–7
MIAQ2 0:0822End of half3–7
NEQ3 15:001045Field goal3–10
MIAQ3 11:01826Field goal6–10
NEQ3 7:4737Punt6–10
MIAQ3 5:45857Field goal9–10
NEQ3 0:30738Punt9–10
MIAQ4 12:001695Touchdown15–10
NEQ4 4:241365Turnover on downs15–10
MIAQ4 0:5539Punt15–10
NEQ4 0:29246End of half15–10

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley18/3119401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Wright13866.60
Raheem Mostert19804.20
De'Von Achane3186.00
Tyler Huntley372.30
Jonnu Smith1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill610690
Jonnu Smith58620
Jaylen Waddle48460
Raheem Mostert22180
Odell Beckham Jr.0100
Durham Smythe0100
De'Von Achane11-10

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett18/3416000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson12897.41
Antonio Gibson6528.70
Jacoby Brissett11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeMario Douglas69590
Kayshon Boutte22340
Hunter Henry24320
Ja'Lynn Polk16130
Austin Hooper1390
Kendrick Bourne1160
Antonio Gibson1140
Rhamondre Stevenson4430

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -23.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.59
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.60
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.80