Closing spread
MIA -2
Total
46.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.095EPA / play-0.189
- 47.3%Success rate38.9%
- +0.167EPA / dropback-0.226
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.128
- 11.5%Explosive rate5.5%
- +4.40CPOE-3.39
- 42.5%Third-down rate30.8%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 2.34Points / drive1.00
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 21/30 | 249 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 18 | 121 | 6.7 | 2 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Erik Ezukanma | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 6 | 86 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 9 | 40 | 1 |
| River Cracraft | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Erik Ezukanma | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 31/42 | 231 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 15 | 50 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Mac Jones | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 6 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 6 | 7 | 52 | 1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 9 | 29 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.05