2022 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Teddy Bridgewater

21·23

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 53°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NE -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+7.1est.

NE perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.047
  • 44.6%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.111EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.082
  • 10.1%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +0.08CPOE+0.93
  • 37.6%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 66.9%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.54
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 29–25 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W1NE @ MIA7–20MIA
2021 · W18NE @ MIA24–33MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NE
MIAQ1 15:00526Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:331267Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 7:151375Touchdown7–7
NEQ2 14:55630Punt7–7
MIAQ2 11:19847Missed field goal7–7
NEQ2 6:2133Punt7–7
MIAQ2 5:28738Punt7–7
NEQ2 1:45420End of half7–7
NEQ3 15:0034Punt7–7
MIAQ3 14:0531Punt7–7
NEQ3 13:0133Punt7–7
MIAQ3 12:02541Touchdown14–7
NEQ3 9:17856Field goal14–10
MIAQ3 4:0330Opp touchdown14–16
MIAQ3 2:51718Turnover14–16
NEQ4 14:1835Punt14–16
MIAQ4 12:47622Punt14–16
NEQ4 9:431267Touchdown14–23
MIAQ4 4:3743Turnover on downs14–23
NEQ4 3:234-4Turnover on downs14–23
MIAQ4 2:321062Touchdown21–23
NEQ4 1:0400End of half21–23

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater12/1916111
Skylar Thompson12/2110411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Wilson15453.00
Raheem Mostert9293.20
Teddy Bridgewater166.00
Skylar Thompson144.00
Tyreek Hill122.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Raheem Mostert88621
Tyreek Hill47550
Jaylen Waddle35520
Jeff Wilson37310
Trent Sherfield26300
Mike Gesicki24181
Durham Smythe1190
Salvon Ahmed1180

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones20/3320420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson8425.30
Damien Harris9313.40
Kendrick Bourne122.00
Mac Jones310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyquan Thornton37601
Hunter Henry56520
Jakobi Meyers69491
Damien Harris33180
Kendrick Bourne12160
Rhamondre Stevenson2490
Nelson Agholor0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.1%5.9%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.7%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.82
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+7.10