Closing spread
NE -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+7.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.047
- 44.6%Success rate41.1%
- +0.111EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.082
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.3%
- +0.08CPOE+0.93
- 37.6%Third-down rate35.3%
- 66.9%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 2.11Points / drive1.54
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 12/19 | 161 | 1 | 1 |
| Skylar Thompson | 12/21 | 104 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Skylar Thompson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 8 | 8 | 62 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 3 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 3 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 2 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 20/33 | 204 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyquan Thornton | 3 | 7 | 60 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 9 | 49 | 1 |
| Damien Harris | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.50
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.82
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+7.10