Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-1.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Patriotsedge mapDolphins
- -0.092EPA / play-0.242
- 40.8%Success rate34.5%
- +0.127EPA / dropback-0.183
- -0.451EPA / rush-0.399
- 1.4%Explosive rate10.9%
- +5.97CPOE-8.85
- 31.3%Third-down rate20.0%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 1.11Points / drive1.18
- 4.2%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.42
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.44