2026 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

24·19

Dolphins

Miami

QB Malik Willis

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass

Final · play by play

How it finished

Final

D.Maye kneels to MIA 36 for -1 yards.

Last play · Patriots · Rush

Win probability · ESPN's model, not ours

100% PatriotsDolphins 0%

Scoring

  1. Q1 9:10Patriots Andy Borregales 34 Yd Field Goal3-0
  2. Q1 3:39Dolphins Zane Gonzalez 31 Yd Field Goal3-3
  3. Q2 9:27Dolphins Zane Gonzalez 52 Yd Field Goal3-6
  4. Q2 0:08Dolphins Malik Washington 1 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Zane Gonzalez Kick)3-13
  5. Q3 9:23Patriots Kyle Williams 43 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)10-13
  6. Q3 0:59Patriots Drake Maye 2 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)17-13
  7. Q4 12:39Patriots DeMario Douglas 48 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)24-13
  8. Q4 2:04Dolphins Kevin Coleman Jr. 35 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24-19

Every drive · newest first

Q4 2:04Patriots 6 plays, 7 yards, 2:04 · from MIA 43End of Game
  1. Q4 0:00END GAME
  2. 3rd & 12D.Maye kneels to MIA 36 for -1 yards.
  3. 2nd & 11D.Maye kneels to MIA 35 for -1 yards.
  4. 1st & 10D.Maye kneels to MIA 34 for -1 yards.
  5. 3rd & 5C.Lomu reported in as eligible. R.Stevenson up the middle to MIA 33 for 5 yards (M.Taaffe; J.Rodriguez).The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
  6. 3rd & 5Timeout #3 by MIA at 01:51.
  7. 2nd & 8(Shotgun) R.Stevenson left end to MIA 38 for 3 yards (J.Marshall).
  8. 1st & 10Two-Minute Warning
  9. 1st & 10(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to R.Stevenson to MIA 41 for 2 yards (J.Brooks).
  10. Q4 2:04B.Pinion kicks onside 8 yards from MIA 35 to MIA 43. R.Stevenson (didn't try to advance) to MIA 43 for no gain.
Q4 4:01Dolphins 8 plays, 84 yards, 1:57 · from MIA 16Touchdown
  1. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) M.Willis pass deep left to K.Coleman for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. M.Willis pass to W.Kacmarek is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
  2. 1st & 10(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Willis pass incomplete short middle to O.Gordon (R.Spillane) [C.Durden].
  3. 2nd & 4(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Willis pass short right to C.Douglas to NE 35 for 12 yards (K.Byard).
  4. 1st & 10(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Willis pass short right to G.Dulcich to NE 47 for 6 yards (C.Davis).
  5. 1st & 10(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Willis pass short right to G.Dulcich to MIA 47 for 13 yards (C.Davis).
  6. 3rd & 3(Shotgun) O.Gordon up the middle to MIA 34 for 11 yards (C.Woodson; K.Byard).
  7. 2nd & 3(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Willis pass incomplete short left.
  8. 1st & 10(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short middle to C.Bell to MIA 23 for 7 yards (M.Jones). ** Injury Update: NE-Dr.Jones has returned to the game.
Q4 6:41Patriots 5 plays, 17 yards, 2:40 · from NE 33Punt
  1. 4th & 5M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to MIA 10, Center-J.Ashby. K.Coleman to MIA 16 for 6 yards (D.Muasau; J.Ashby).
  2. 3rd & 5D.Maye pass incomplete short right to E.Raridon.
  3. 3rd & 5Timeout #2 by MIA at 04:20.
  4. 2nd & 8C.Kiner right guard to 50 for 3 yards (J.Phillips; Z.Biggers).
  5. 1st & 10C.Lomu reported in as eligible. C.Kiner up the middle to NE 47 for 2 yards (Z.Sieler; W.Gay).
  6. 2nd & 8(Shotgun) C.Kiner left guard to NE 45 for 10 yards (C.Johnson).
  7. 1st & 10C.Kiner up the middle to NE 35 for 2 yards (D.Trader).
Q4 12:39Dolphins 11 plays, 45 yards, 5:58 · from MIA 30Missed FG
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 06:41.
  2. 4th & 10Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-T.Addington, Holder-B.Pinion.
  3. 3rd & 10(Shotgun) M.Willis pass incomplete short middle to G.Dulcich (R.Spillane).
  4. 2nd & 12O.Gordon up the middle to NE 25 for 2 yards (J.Farmer; L.Taylor).
  5. 1st & 10C.Bell left end to NE 27 for -2 yards (C.Woodson). NE-Dr.Jones was injured during the play.
  6. 3rd & 1M.Willis right guard to NE 25 for 2 yards (K.Byard).
  7. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short middle to C.Bell to NE 27 for 9 yards (C.Elliss; K.Byard).
  8. 1st & 15(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short left to G.Dulcich to NE 36 for 5 yards (M.Jones).
  9. 1st & 10(Shotgun) M.Willis pass incomplete short left to M.Washington.PENALTY on MIA-P.Paul, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 36 - No Play.
  10. 2nd & 3O.Gordon up the middle to NE 36 for 5 yards (R.Spillane; C.Elliss).Penalty on NE-C.Durden, Defensive Offside, declined.
  11. 1st & 10(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Willis pass short left to C.Douglas to NE 41 for 7 yards (M.Jones).
  12. 2nd & 4O.Gordon up the middle to NE 48 for 16 yards (C.Woodson).
  13. 2nd & 9M.Willis pass short middle intended for C.Douglas INTERCEPTED by C.Elliss at MIA 44. C.Elliss to MIA 44 for no gain (C.Douglas).PENALTY on NE-Dr.Jones, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 31 - No Play.
  14. 1st & 10O.Gordon up the middle to MIA 31 for 1 yard (L.Taylor; Dr.Jones).
  15. Q4 12:39A.Borregales kicks 61 yards from NE 35 to MIA 4. J.Wright to MIA 30 for 26 yards (C.Woods).
Q4 13:31Patriots 2 plays, 53 yards, 0:52 · from NE 47Touchdown
  1. Q4 12:39Official Timeout at 12:39.
  2. 2nd & 5D.Maye pass deep right to D.Douglas for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.
  3. 1st & 10(Shotgun) R.Stevenson up the middle to MIA 48 for 5 yards (C.Johnson; K.Grant).
Q3 0:59Dolphins 5 plays, 11 yards, 2:28 · from MIA 12Interception
  1. 2nd & 11M.Willis pass deep middle intended for C.Douglas INTERCEPTED by K.Byard (Da.Jones) at NE 47. K.Byard to NE 47 for no gain (M.Washington).
  2. 1st & 10O.Gordon right tackle to MIA 23 for -1 yards (C.Elliss).
  3. 3rd & 3(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short right to M.Washington to MIA 24 for 5 yards (C.Gonzalez).
  4. Q3 0:00END QUARTER 3
  5. 2nd & 10O.Gordon up the middle to MIA 19 for 7 yards (L.Taylor).
  6. 1st & 10(Shotgun) O.Gordon right end to MIA 12 for no gain (M.Jones; Da.Jones).
  7. Q3 0:59A.Borregales kicks 59 yards from NE 35 to MIA 6. J.Wright pushed ob at MIA 22 for 16 yards (C.Woods; L.Larison).PENALTY on MIA-J.Wood, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 22.
Q3 8:35Patriots 13 plays, 73 yards, 7:36 · from NE 27Touchdown
  1. Q3 0:59Official Timeout at 00:59.
  2. 3rd & Goal(Shotgun) C.Lomu reported in as eligible. D.Maye right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.
  3. 2nd & Goal(Shotgun) R.Stevenson up the middle to MIA 2 for 5 yards (M.Taaffe; K.Grant).
  4. 1st & Goal(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to E.Chism to MIA 7 for 8 yards (C.Johnson; J.Brooks).
  5. 1st & GoalPENALTY on NE-E.Raridon, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 10 - No Play.
  6. 3rd & 1C.Lomu reported in as eligible. R.Stevenson up the middle to MIA 10 for 2 yards (Z.Sieler; J.Rodriguez).
  7. 2nd & 8(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short left to E.Chism pushed ob at MIA 12 for 7 yards (J.Rodriguez).
  8. 1st & 10(Shotgun) R.Stevenson right guard to MIA 19 for 2 yards (J.Phillips).
  9. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 04:44.
  10. 4th & 2(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to D.Douglas to MIA 22 for 1 yard (C.Johnson).The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to D.Douglas to MIA 21 for 2 yards (C.Johnson).
  11. 3rd & 1C.Kiner left end to MIA 23 for -1 yards (M.Taaffe, J.Brooks).
  12. 2nd & 4R.Stevenson up the middle to MIA 22 for 3 yards (C.Robinson).
  13. 1st & 10(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short left to E.Chism pushed ob at MIA 25 for 6 yards (J.Brents).
  14. 1st & 10D.Maye to NE 42 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at NE 42. D.Maye pass deep left to D.Douglas to MIA 31 for 26 yards (M.Taaffe).
  15. 2nd & 3(Shotgun) R.Stevenson right guard to NE 43 for 9 yards (J.Brooks).
  16. 1st & 10(Shotgun) R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 34 for 7 yards (J.Rodriguez; K.Louis).
Q3 9:23Dolphins 3 plays, -10 yards, 0:48 · from MIA 35Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 08:35.
  2. 4th & 20B.Pinion punts 48 yards to NE 27, Center-T.Addington. M.Jones to NE 27 for no gain (K.Allen).
  3. 3rd & 20(Shotgun) M.Willis pass incomplete short right to J.Wright.
  4. 2nd & 10O.Gordon left end to MIA 40 for 5 yards (R.Spillane).PENALTY on MIA-O.Gordon, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 40.
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) M.Willis pass incomplete deep left to C.Douglas.
  6. Q3 9:23A.Borregales kicks 66 yards from NE 35 to MIA -1. J.Wright to MIA 35 for 36 yards (L.Larison).
Q3 11:52Patriots 5 plays, 62 yards, 2:29 · from NE 38Touchdown
  1. 2nd & 2(Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to K.Williams (M.Taaffe).New England challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to K.Williams for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.
  2. 1st & 10R.Stevenson up the middle to MIA 43 for 8 yards (W.Gay; J.Brooks). ** Injury Update: MIA-M.Herring has returned to the game.
  3. 3rd & 3(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short left to R.Stevenson to NE 49 for 4 yards (J.Brooks).
  4. 2nd & 7(Shotgun) R.Stevenson left end pushed ob at NE 45 for 4 yards (J.Brooks).
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 41 for 3 yards (J.Phillips).
Q3 12:59Dolphins 3 plays, 1 yard, 1:07 · from MIA 25Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 11:52.
  2. 4th & 9B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NE 29, Center-T.Addington. M.Jones to NE 38 for 9 yards (S.Traore).
  3. 3rd & 9(Shotgun) M.Willis pass incomplete short middle to G.Dulcich.
  4. 2nd & 9M.Willis pass incomplete short right to C.Bell.Penalty on MIA-P.Paul, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
  5. 2nd & 9Timeout #1 by MIA at 12:13.
  6. 1st & 10(Shotgun) O.Gordon right guard to MIA 26 for 1 yard (C.Elliss).
Q3 15:00Patriots 3 plays, -1 yard, 2:01 · from NE 35Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 12:59.
  2. 4th & 11M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to MIA 11, Center-J.Ashby. M.Washington to MIA 25 for 14 yards (E.Hunter; M.Brown).
  3. 3rd & 6(Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at NE 34 for -5 yards (C.Robinson).
  4. 2nd & 9(Shotgun) R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 39 for 3 yards (J.Brooks; D.Trader).
  5. 1st & 10D.Maye scrambles right end to NE 36 for 1 yard (J.Uche).
  6. Q3 15:00B.Pinion kicks 65 yards from MIA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the NE 35.
Q2 0:08Patriots 1 play, -2 yards, 0:08 · from NE 35End of Half
  1. Q2 0:00END QUARTER 2
  2. 1st & 10(Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at NE 33 for -2 yards (C.Robinson).
  3. Q2 0:08B.Pinion kicks 65 yards from MIA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the NE 35.
Q2 2:19Dolphins 11 plays, 70 yards, 2:11 · from MIA 30Touchdown
  1. 3rd & Goal(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short left to M.Washington for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: MIA-M.Washington has returned to the game. Z.Gonzalez extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Addington, Holder-B.Pinion.
  2. 2nd & GoalM.Willis pass incomplete short left.
  3. 1st & Goal(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short left to K.Coleman ran ob at NE 1 for 5 yards.
  4. 1st & 7Timeout #1 by MIA at 00:21.
  5. 1st & 14(Shotgun) M.Willis pass deep right to C.Douglas to NE 6 for 18 yards (C.Gonzalez).
  6. 1st & 10(Shotgun) O.Gordon up the middle to NE 5 for 15 yards (K.Byard).PENALTY on MIA-J.Savaiinaea, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 14.
  7. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 00:34.
  8. 3rd & 4(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short middle to J.Tolbert to NE 35 for 8 yards (C.Davis). MIA-M.Washington was injured during the play. PENALTY on NE-C.Elliss, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NE 35.
  9. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short right to C.Douglas to NE 43 for 6 yards (K.Byard).
  10. 1st & 10(Shotgun) M.Willis pass incomplete short left to M.Washington (M.Jones).
  11. 3rd & 8(Shotgun) M.Willis pass deep right to G.Dulcich to NE 49 for 19 yards (C.Davis; K.Byard).
  12. 3rd & 8Timeout #2 by NE at 01:50.
  13. 2nd & 3(Shotgun) M.Willis sacked at MIA 32 for -5 yards (G.Jacas).
  14. 2nd & 8(Shotgun) M.Willis pass incomplete deep right to C.Douglas.PENALTY on NE-G.Jacas, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 32 - No Play.
  15. 2nd & 8Two-Minute Warning
  16. 1st & 10J.Wright left end pushed ob at MIA 32 for 2 yards (C.Davis).
Q2 9:27Patriots 12 plays, 43 yards, 7:08 · from NE 35Missed FG
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 02:19.
  2. 4th & 3A.Borregales 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.
  3. 3rd & 4(Shotgun) D.Maye Aborted. J.Wilson FUMBLES at MIA 24, recovered by NE-D.Maye at MIA 29. D.Maye to MIA 22 for 7 yards (M.Taaffe).
  4. 2nd & 8(Shotgun) L.Larison up the middle to MIA 23 for 4 yards (J.Phillips).
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) L.Larison right end pushed ob at MIA 27 for 2 yards (K.Louis).
  6. 4th & 3(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short middle to E.Chism to MIA 29 for 12 yards (D.Trader).
  7. 3rd & 5(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to R.Stevenson pushed ob at MIA 41 for 2 yards (J.Brents).
  8. 3rd & 1C.Lomu reported in as eligible. PENALTY on NE-E.Raridon, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at MIA 39 - No Play.
  9. 2nd & 6(Shotgun) R.Stevenson right guard to MIA 39 for 5 yards (W.Gay; J.Rodriguez).
  10. 1st & 10R.Stevenson up the middle to MIA 44 for 4 yards (J.Rodriguez).
  11. 1st & 10(Shotgun) D.Maye scrambles right guard to NE 47 for 2 yards (Z.Sieler).PENALTY on MIA-C.Johnson, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at NE 47.
  12. 1st & 10Timeout #1 by NE at 07:24.
  13. 3rd & 2(Shotgun) D.Maye scrambles right end pushed ob at NE 45 for 2 yards (J.Uche).
  14. 2nd & 6(Shotgun) R.Stevenson right tackle to NE 43 for 4 yards (J.Brooks).
  15. 1st & 10(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to H.Henry to NE 39 for 4 yards (J.Brooks).
  16. Q2 9:27Z.Gonzalez kicks 65 yards from MIA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the NE 35.
Q1 1:20Dolphins 12 plays, 55 yards, 6:53 · from MIA 11Field Goal
  1. Q2 9:27Official Timeout at 09:27.
  2. 4th & 16Z.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Addington, Holder-B.Pinion.
  3. 3rd & 19(Shotgun) J.Wright up the middle to NE 34 for 3 yards (C.Elliss; R.Spillane).
  4. 2nd & 13(Shotgun) M.Willis sacked at NE 37 for -6 yards (sack split by E.Ponder and J.Reed).
  5. 1st & 10O.Gordon up the middle to NE 31 for -3 yards (C.Durden).
  6. 3rd & 3(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short left to K.Coleman ran ob at NE 28 for 6 yards (C.Davis).
  7. 2nd & 7(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short right to M.Washington to NE 34 for 4 yards (M.Williams; C.Elliss).
  8. 1st & 10O.Gordon up the middle to NE 38 for 3 yards (Dr.Jones; M.Williams).
  9. 2nd & 10M.Willis pass deep right to M.Washington pushed ob at NE 41 for 23 yards (C.Gonzalez).
  10. 1st & 10M.Willis pass incomplete short right to W.Kacmarek (E.Ponder).
  11. 2nd & 4(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short right to M.Washington to MIA 36 for 7 yards (C.Davis).
  12. Q1 0:00END QUARTER 1
  13. 1st & 10O.Gordon up the middle to MIA 29 for 6 yards (C.Woodson; C.Elliss).
  14. 1st & 5(Shotgun) O.Gordon up the middle to MIA 23 for 7 yards (Dr.Jones).
  15. 1st & 10O.Gordon up the middle to MIA 12 for 1 yard (Dr.Jones; C.Elliss).PENALTY on NE-J.Farmer, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 11 - No Play.
Q1 3:39Patriots 4 plays, 12 yards, 2:19 · from NE 35Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 01:20.
  2. 4th & 18M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to MIA 11, Center-J.Ashby, downed by NE-E.Hunter.
  3. 3rd & 8(Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at NE 47 for -10 yards (J.Uche).
  4. 2nd & 8(Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to E.Raridon.
  5. 1st & 10C.Kiner up the middle to MIA 43 for 2 yards (J.Phillips; J.Brooks).
  6. 1st & 10C.Kiner up the middle to MIA 45 for 20 yards (M.Taaffe; J.Marshall).
  7. Q1 3:39B.Pinion kicks 65 yards from MIA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the NE 35.
Q1 5:48Dolphins 4 plays, 6 yards, 2:09 · from NE 19Field Goal
  1. Q1 3:39Official Timeout at 03:39.
  2. 4th & 4Z.Gonzalez 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Addington, Holder-B.Pinion.
  3. 3rd & 13(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short middle to C.Bell to NE 13 for 9 yards (M.Jones; R.Spillane).
  4. 2nd & 10O.Gordon right tackle to NE 22 for -3 yards (C.Elliss, C.Durden).
  5. 1st & 10O.Gordon left guard to NE 19 for no gain (M.Williams).
Q1 6:57Patriots 2 plays, 3 yards, 1:09 · from NE 15Fumble
  1. 2nd & 11D.Maye pass short left to E.Chism to NE 18 for 4 yards (J.Rodriguez; K.Louis). FUMBLES (J.Rodriguez), RECOVERED by MIA-J.Brents at NE 19.
  2. 1st & 17(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to H.Henry to NE 14 for 6 yards (J.Rodriguez; Z.Sieler).
  3. 1st & 10(Shotgun) R.Stevenson right end ran ob at NE 22 for 7 yards (D.Trader).PENALTY on NE-T.Arkin, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at NE 15 - No Play.
Q1 9:10Dolphins 3 plays, -2 yards, 2:13 · from MIA 47Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 06:57.
  2. 4th & 12B.Pinion punts 40 yards to NE 15, Center-T.Addington, out of bounds.
  3. 3rd & 10(Shotgun) M.Willis sacked at MIA 45 for -2 yards (sack split by C.Barmore and G.Jacas).
  4. 2nd & 11O.Gordon up the middle to MIA 47 for 1 yard (C.Woodson; G.Jacas).
  5. 1st & 10M.Willis sacked at MIA 46 for -1 yards (C.Durden).
  6. Q1 9:10A.Borregales kicks 61 yards from NE 35 to MIA 4. J.Wright to MIA 47 for 43 yards (A.Borregales).
Q1 12:41Patriots 8 plays, 35 yards, 3:31 · from NE 49Field Goal
  1. Q1 9:10Official Timeout at 09:10.
  2. 4th & 5A.Borregales 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.
  3. 3rd & 5(Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete deep right.
  4. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short left to E.Raridon to MIA 16 for 5 yards (J.Brents).
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short right to E.Raridon.
  6. 1st & 10C.Lomu reported in as eligible. D.Maye pass deep left to H.Henry pushed ob at MIA 21 for 20 yards (D.Trader).
  7. 3rd & 3(Shotgun) R.Stevenson left end to MIA 41 for 3 yards (Z.Sieler).
  8. 2nd & 5R.Stevenson left end to MIA 44 for 2 yards (J.Uche).
  9. 1st & 10R.Stevenson up the middle to MIA 46 for 5 yards (Z.Sieler).
Q1 15:00Dolphins 3 plays, 4 yards, 2:19 · from MIA 23Punt
  1. 4th & 6B.Pinion punts 50 yards to NE 23, Center-T.Addington. M.Jones pushed ob at NE 49 for 26 yards (K.Allen).
  2. 3rd & 12(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short right to C.Bell to MIA 27 for 6 yards (M.Williams; C.Davis).
  3. 3rd & 7(Shotgun) PENALTY on MIA-J.Kingston, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 26 - No Play.
  4. 2nd & 5(Shotgun) M.Willis sacked at MIA 26 for -2 yards (sack split by C.Durden and C.Elliss).
  5. 1st & 10O.Gordon left end pushed ob at MIA 28 for 5 yards (C.Davis).
  6. Q1 15:00A.Borregales kicks 63 yards from NE 35 to MIA 2. J.Wright to MIA 23 for 21 yards (B.Schooler).

Plays via ESPN. The full play-by-play, with EPA and our win probability, lands with the overnight data refresh.

Closing spread

NE -7

Total

41.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Dolphins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.052EPA / play-0.049
  • 45.0%Success rate39.8%
  • +0.215EPA / dropback-0.005
  • -0.200EPA / rush-0.107
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +7.12CPOE-6.93
  • 40.8%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
  • 2.06Points / drive1.79
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 29–25 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE
2022 · W1NE @ MIA7–20MIA

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.56%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.2%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-1.07