2025 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

33·27

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

MIA -1.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-3.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.154EPA / play-0.021
  • 48.2%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.308EPA / dropback-0.016
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.028
  • 10.5%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +10.94CPOE+1.82
  • 43.3%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 63.4%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 2.47Points / drive1.92
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 29–25 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE
2022 · W1NE @ MIA7–20MIA
2021 · W18NE @ MIA24–33MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–MIA
NEQ1 15:001068Touchdown6–0
MIAQ1 9:2945Punt6–0
NEQ1 7:541175Touchdown12–0
MIAQ1 0:49883Touchdown12–7
NEQ2 11:191681Field goal15–7
MIAQ2 1:56677Touchdown15–14
NEQ2 0:3300End of half15–14
MIAQ3 15:00864Field goal15–17
NEQ3 10:413-8Punt15–17
MIAQ3 9:131035Field goal15–20
NEQ3 3:37693Touchdown23–20
MIAQ3 0:06516Punt23–20
NEQ4 12:07719Opp touchdown29–27
NEQ4 7:1800Touchdown30–27
MIAQ4 7:06945Turnover30–27
NEQ4 2:1238Field goal33–27
MIAQ4 1:47733Turnover on downs33–27
NEQ4 0:4800End of half33–27

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye19/2323020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson11544.90
Drake Maye10313.11
Antonio Gibson5275.40
TreVeyon Henderson3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rhamondre Stevenson55880
Austin Hooper33380
Stefon Diggs45320
TreVeyon Henderson22300
Kayshon Boutte11161
Hunter Henry1390
Mack Hollins1281
DeMario Douglas1180
Antonio Gibson1110

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa26/3231521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane11302.70
Malik Washington3237.70
Ollie Gordon II188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill671090
De'Von Achane810921
Jaylen Waddle56681
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine23180
Dee Eskridge1180
Ollie Gordon II1150
Malik Washington1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.5%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.21