Closing spread
MIA -1.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-3.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.154EPA / play-0.021
- 48.2%Success rate42.1%
- +0.308EPA / dropback-0.016
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.028
- 10.5%Explosive rate10.1%
- +10.94CPOE+1.82
- 43.3%Third-down rate34.1%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 2.47Points / drive1.92
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 19/23 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 5 | 5 | 88 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 26/32 | 315 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 7 | 109 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 8 | 10 | 92 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 6 | 68 | 1 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.5%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.91
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.21