1999 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Randall Cunningham

23·25

Lions

Detroit

QB Charlie Batch

Pontiac Silverdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

Total

45

Model margin

+4.6est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapLions
  • +0.042EPA / play-0.057
  • 44.6%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.128EPA / dropback+0.024
  • -0.092EPA / rush-0.222
  • 10.9%Explosive rate8.4%
  • 44.4%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.19
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.0%
  • -0.008EPA / play allowed-0.055

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DET
DETQ1 15:00844Punt0–0
MINQ1 9:47519Opp touchdown0–7
DETQ1 7:1700Opp touchdown0–7
MINQ1 7:17618Punt0–7
DETQ1 3:55618Field goal0–10
MINQ1 1:03727Turnover0–10
DETQ2 13:03837Field goal0–13
MINQ2 10:0641Turnover0–13
DETQ2 8:3732Field goal0–16
MINQ2 6:35421Punt0–16
DETQ2 4:43959Field goal0–19
MINQ2 0:2511End of half0–19
MINQ3 15:00580Touchdown7–19
DETQ3 12:044-15Turnover7–19
MINQ3 11:133-7Turnover7–19
DETQ3 10:263-9Punt13–19
MINQ3 9:23136Touchdown14–19
DETQ3 9:161261Missed field goal14–19
MINQ3 1:13560Touchdown20–19
DETQ4 13:301054Field goal20–22
MINQ4 7:061071Field goal23–22
DETQ4 1:40548Field goal23–25
MINQ4 0:0710Turnover23–25

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff George10/1221421
Randall Cunningham10/157801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leroy Hoard13453.51
Robert Smith4143.50
Moe Williams210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss10131251
Jake Reed33660
Cris Carter46451
Andrew Glover23420
John Henry Mills11140

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gus Frerotte15/2414000
Charlie Batch9/167000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Greg Hill11676.10
Ron Rivers11454.10
Gus Frerotte144.00
Germane Crowell122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnnie Morton811740
Germane Crowell89610
David Sloan36300
Brian Stablein23240
Greg Hill22150
Ron Rivers1260
Walter Rasby0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

6.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.4%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.62