Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
+4.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play-0.057
- 44.6%Success rate38.8%
- +0.128EPA / dropback+0.024
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.222
- 10.9%Explosive rate8.4%
- 44.4%Third-down rate35.5%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.72Points / drive1.19
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.008EPA / play allowed-0.055
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 10/12 | 214 | 2 | 1 |
| Randall Cunningham | 10/15 | 78 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leroy Hoard | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Robert Smith | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 10 | 13 | 125 | 1 |
| Jake Reed | 3 | 3 | 66 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 4 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Andrew Glover | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| John Henry Mills | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 15/24 | 140 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 9/16 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Hill | 11 | 67 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Ron Rivers | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 8 | 11 | 74 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 8 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Brian Stablein | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Greg Hill | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Ron Rivers | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
6.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.62