2025 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

10·23

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Max Brosmer

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

DET -7

Total

45.5

Model margin

+0.0est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

4.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapVikings
  • +0.071EPA / play-0.094
  • 45.0%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback-0.115
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.062
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +1.64CPOE-2.84
  • 39.2%Third-down rate32.4%
  • 66.0%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 2.54Points / drive1.75
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–18 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET
2022 · W3DET @ MIN24–28MIN
2021 · W13MIN @ DET27–29DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–MIN
MINQ1 15:003-6Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:23418Punt0–0
MINQ1 10:341024Punt0–0
DETQ1 4:3539Turnover0–0
MINQ1 3:42516Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 1:35417Turnover0–7
MINQ2 14:153-2Punt0–7
DETQ2 11:131980Touchdown7–7
MINQ2 1:0544Punt7–7
DETQ2 0:181-5End of half7–7
DETQ3 15:00519Punt7–7
MINQ3 11:0537Punt7–7
DETQ3 9:333-8Turnover7–7
MINQ3 7:57823Field goal7–10
DETQ3 3:0310Turnover7–10
MINQ3 2:5234Field goal7–13
DETQ3 1:5746Turnover7–13
MINQ4 14:5440Punt7–13
DETQ4 12:55613Punt7–13
MINQ4 8:5335Punt7–13
DETQ4 7:12625Field goal10–13
MINQ4 4:39265Touchdown10–20
DETQ4 3:43422Turnover10–20
MINQ4 3:05621Field goal10–23
DETQ4 1:04435End of half10–23

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff18/2919712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs17412.40
David Montgomery10252.50
Jared Goff320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown813680
Isaac TeSlaa34491
Jameson Williams23370
Jahmyr Gibbs23230
David Montgomery22150
Kalif Raymond1250
Anthony Firkser0100
Giovanni Ricci0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Max Brosmer9/165100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Addison16565.01
Aaron Jones18532.91
Ty Chandler7243.40
Max Brosmer2168.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson45300
Aaron Jones34100
Josh Oliver1280
Ben Sims1130
Jalen Nailor0100
Jordan Addison0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

4.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.18
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.01