Closing spread
DET -7
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.0est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.071EPA / play-0.094
- 45.0%Success rate43.3%
- +0.167EPA / dropback-0.115
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.062
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.4%
- +1.64CPOE-2.84
- 39.2%Third-down rate32.4%
- 66.0%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 2.54Points / drive1.75
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 18/29 | 197 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 17 | 41 | 2.4 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 8 | 13 | 68 | 0 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 3 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Giovanni Ricci | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Brosmer | 9/16 | 51 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Addison | 1 | 65 | 65.0 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Ty Chandler | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Max Brosmer | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ben Sims | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.01