2024 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

31·29

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Darnold

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -1

Total

50.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapVikings
  • +0.156EPA / play+0.038
  • 49.6%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.267EPA / dropback+0.135
  • +0.021EPA / rush-0.119
  • 11.5%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +5.81CPOE+4.00
  • 48.1%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 74.9%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 3.02Points / drive2.09
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. MIN are 25-26-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET
2022 · W3DET @ MIN24–28MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–MIN
DETQ1 15:00514Turnover on downs0–0
MINQ1 12:31234Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 11:4337Punt0–7
MINQ1 10:10836Field goal0–10
DETQ1 5:3439Punt0–10
MINQ1 3:58523Punt0–10
DETQ1 0:51569Touchdown7–10
MINQ2 13:42524Punt7–10
DETQ2 11:24573Touchdown14–10
MINQ2 8:39532Turnover14–10
DETQ2 5:39972Touchdown21–10
MINQ2 0:26217End of half21–10
MINQ3 15:001080Touchdown21–17
DETQ3 10:421085Touchdown28–17
MINQ3 5:431061Field goal28–20
DETQ4 14:24623Punt28–20
MINQ4 10:10656Field goal28–23
DETQ4 6:0425Opp touchdown28–29
DETQ4 5:503-10Punt28–29
MINQ4 4:1636Punt28–29
DETQ4 2:32548Field goal31–29
MINQ4 0:15214End of half31–29

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff22/2528020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs151167.72
David Montgomery9313.40
Jared Goff2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown881121
Jahmyr Gibbs44440
Kalif Raymond34391
David Montgomery34390
Tim Patrick22250
Sam LaPorta12250
Jameson Williams11-40

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold22/2725911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones14936.61
Sam Darnold4399.80
Ty Chandler242.00
Justin Jefferson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson78811
Jalen Nailor45760
Jordan Addison34660
Aaron Jones33230
Johnny Mundt4580
Josh Oliver1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+0.93