Closing spread
MIN -1
Total
50.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play+0.038
- 49.6%Success rate46.3%
- +0.267EPA / dropback+0.135
- +0.021EPA / rush-0.119
- 11.5%Explosive rate9.6%
- +5.81CPOE+4.00
- 48.1%Third-down rate39.7%
- 74.9%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 3.02Points / drive2.09
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 22/25 | 280 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 15 | 116 | 7.7 | 2 |
| David Montgomery | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 8 | 8 | 112 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 22/27 | 259 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 14 | 93 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Sam Darnold | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 7 | 8 | 81 | 1 |
| Jalen Nailor | 4 | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 3 | 4 | 66 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 4 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.93