Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Lions
- OutBrock WrightTEHip· DNP
- OutChauncey Gardner-JohnsonSPectoral· Limited
- OutJason CabindaFBKnee· Limited
- OutJerry JacobsCBHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulDerrick BarnesLBShoulder· Limited
Vikings
- OutByron MurphyCBKnee· DNP
- OutJalen NailorWRConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableAlexander MattisonRBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableBrian O'NeillTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableHarrison PhillipsDTBack· Limited
- QuestionableIvan PaceLBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableJonathan BullardDTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJordan HicksLBShin· Full
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.058EPA / play-0.025
- 45.9%Success rate43.2%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.039
- -0.014EPA / rush-0.158
- 11.2%Explosive rate9.4%
- +1.34CPOE+2.80
- 42.4%Third-down rate37.5%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
- 2.29Points / drive1.84
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. MIN are 25-26-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 15 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q1 7:13 | 10 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| DET | Q1 2:51 | 3 | 24 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q1 2:02 | 4 | 8 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| DET | Q1 0:16 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q2 14:05 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DET | Q2 12:03 | 12 | 50 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| MIN | Q2 5:05 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| DET | Q2 2:38 | 3 | 28 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| MIN | Q2 1:48 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| DET | Q2 0:29 | 3 | 12 | End of half | 17–14 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 81 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| DET | Q3 11:56 | 13 | 80 | Touchdown | 23–21 |
| MIN | Q3 4:38 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 23–21 |
| DET | Q3 3:01 | 14 | 83 | Touchdown | 30–21 |
| MIN | Q4 11:07 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 30–21 |
| DET | Q4 9:52 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 30–21 |
| MIN | Q4 7:31 | 7 | 66 | Field goal | 30–24 |
| DET | Q4 5:19 | 8 | 21 | Punt | 30–24 |
| MIN | Q4 2:23 | 7 | 63 | Turnover | 30–24 |
| DET | Q4 0:49 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 30–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 30/40 | 257 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 15 | 80 | 5.3 | 2 |
| David Montgomery | 17 | 55 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 12 | 14 | 106 | 1 |
| Jameson Williams | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 4 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 22/36 | 411 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Chandler | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Nick Mullens | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 10 | 141 | 1 |
| K.J. Osborn | 5 | 7 | 95 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.78
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.56
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.48