2022 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

23·34

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -2.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapLions
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.073
  • 45.8%Success rate45.7%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback+0.173
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.070
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +1.66CPOE-1.27
  • 40.7%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 65.2%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
  • 2.04Points / drive2.36
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W3DET @ MIN24–28MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DET
DETQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:59620Turnover on downs0–0
DETQ1 11:18246Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 10:271264Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 4:021131Turnover on downs7–7
MINQ2 14:56518Punt7–7
DETQ2 12:50947Punt7–7
MINQ2 7:5839Punt7–13
DETQ2 6:42148Touchdown7–14
MINQ2 6:341267Turnover7–14
DETQ2 0:59549Missed field goal7–14
MINQ2 0:1027End of half7–14
MINQ3 15:0039Punt7–14
DETQ3 12:4813101Touchdown7–21
MINQ3 5:44775Touchdown13–21
DETQ3 2:171075Touchdown13–28
MINQ4 13:28652Field goal16–28
DETQ4 10:471152Field goal16–31
MINQ4 4:06675Touchdown23–31
DETQ4 2:50614Field goal23–34
MINQ4 0:17220Turnover23–34

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins31/4142520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook15231.51
Alexander Mattison2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson11152230
T.J. Hockenson68770
Adam Thielen78651
K.J. Osborn55381
Dalvin Cook12130
Jalen Reagor0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff27/3933030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams16372.30
D'Andre Swift6213.50
Justin Jackson4194.81
Jared Goff294.50
Amon-Ra St. Brown166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Chark67941
Amon-Ra St. Brown69680
Josh Reynolds56511
Jameson Williams12411
Kalif Raymond22190
D'Andre Swift34180
Shane Zylstra22180
Justin Jackson11120
Jamaal Williams0100
Brock Wright0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.1%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.88