Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.073
- 45.8%Success rate45.7%
- +0.070EPA / dropback+0.173
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.070
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- +1.66CPOE-1.27
- 40.7%Third-down rate41.5%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 2.04Points / drive2.36
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 31/41 | 425 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 15 | 23 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 11 | 15 | 223 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 6 | 8 | 77 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 7 | 8 | 65 | 1 |
| K.J. Osborn | 5 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 27/39 | 330 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 16 | 37 | 2.3 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Chark | 6 | 7 | 94 | 1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 5 | 6 | 51 | 1 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 2 | 41 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Shane Zylstra | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.88