Closing spread
DET -9.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play+0.071
- 43.3%Success rate45.0%
- -0.115EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.1%
- -2.84CPOE+1.64
- 32.4%Third-down rate39.2%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
- 1.75Points / drive2.54
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 14/25 | 143 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 9 | 78 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 9 | 12 | 1.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Addison | 2 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 9 | 47 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 25/37 | 284 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9 | 13 | 97 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 6 | 8 | 97 | 1 |
| Jameson Williams | 4 | 6 | 66 | 1 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.49
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.46