2025 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB J.J. McCarthy

27·24

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -9.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapLions
  • -0.094EPA / play+0.071
  • 43.3%Success rate45.0%
  • -0.115EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.071
  • 8.4%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -2.84CPOE+1.64
  • 32.4%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
  • 1.75Points / drive2.54
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–18 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET
2022 · W3DET @ MIN24–28MIN
2021 · W13MIN @ DET27–29DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DET
DETQ1 15:00672Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 12:37536Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 10:173-2Punt7–7
MINQ1 7:48764Touchdown14–7
DETQ1 4:08614Punt14–7
MINQ1 0:313-3Punt14–7
DETQ2 13:58935Touchdown14–14
MINQ2 9:39731Field goal17–14
DETQ2 4:4236Punt17–14
MINQ2 3:1386Turnover17–14
DETQ2 0:473-1Punt17–14
MINQ2 0:2100End of half17–14
MINQ3 15:00616Punt17–14
DETQ3 12:3138Punt17–14
MINQ3 11:24426Punt17–14
DETQ3 9:1838Turnover17–14
MINQ3 8:19535Touchdown24–14
DETQ3 6:041153Field goal24–17
MINQ3 0:113-2Punt24–17
DETQ4 13:101243Missed field goal24–17
MINQ4 6:20733Field goal27–17
DETQ4 3:31569Touchdown27–24
MINQ4 1:55321End of half27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
J.J. McCarthy14/2514321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones9788.70
Jordan Mason10363.60
Jordan Addison11616.00
J.J. McCarthy9121.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Addison24480
Justin Jefferson69471
Aaron Jones22200
Jalen Nailor14160
T.J. Hockenson23111
Jordan Mason1110

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff25/3728420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery11403.61
Jahmyr Gibbs9252.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown913970
Sam LaPorta68971
Jameson Williams46661
Brock Wright11110
David Montgomery24100
Jahmyr Gibbs3330
Kalif Raymond0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.57.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.46