Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-5.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Vikingsedge mapLions
- +0.055EPA / play-0.027
- 37.7%Success rate45.5%
- +0.208EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.125EPA / rush-0.072
- 3.3%Explosive rate10.4%
- -4.89CPOE-2.91
- 57.1%Third-down rate38.5%
- 83.3%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 2.90Points / drive2.20
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.58
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.36