2026 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kyler Murray

15·19

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Final · play by play

How it finished

Final

J.Goff kneels to 50 for -1 yards.

Last play · Lions · Rush

Win probability · ESPN's model, not ours

0% VikingsLions 100%

Scoring

  1. Q1 2:18Lions Jake Bates 25 Yd Field Goal0-3
  2. Q2 14:25Vikings Justin Jefferson 1 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Will Reichard Kick)7-3
  3. Q2 0:02Lions Jake Bates 37 Yd Field Goal7-6
  4. Q3 4:40Lions Jahmyr Gibbs 30 Yd Rush (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)7-12
  5. Q4 8:44Vikings T.J. Hockenson 8 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Kyler Murray Pass to Jordan Addison for Two-Point Conversion)15-12
  6. Q4 4:35Lions Jameson Williams 7 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)15-19

Every drive · newest first

Q4 2:53Lions 8 plays, 33 yards, 2:53 · from DET 17End of Game
  1. Q4 0:00END GAME
  2. 2nd & 11J.Goff kneels to 50 for -1 yards.
  3. 1st & 10J.Goff kneels to MIN 49 for -1 yards.
  4. 3rd & 1J.Goff up the middle to MIN 48 for 2 yards (D.Orange).
  5. 3rd & 1Timeout #3 by MIN at 01:48.
  6. 2nd & 4S.Vaki left tackle to 50 for 3 yards (J.Metellus).
  7. 2nd & 4Timeout #2 by MIN at 01:52.
  8. 1st & 10J.Gibbs right tackle to DET 47 for 6 yards (J.Metellus; E.Wilson).
  9. 1st & 10Timeout #1 by MIN at 01:55.
  10. 2nd & 2S.LaPorta up the middle to DET 41 for 2 yards (I.Rodgers; B.Cashman).
  11. 2nd & 2Two-Minute Warning
  12. 1st & 10J.Gibbs left tackle to DET 39 for 8 yards (I.Rodgers).
  13. 1st & 10J.Gibbs left tackle to DET 31 for 14 yards (B.Murphy).
Q4 4:35Vikings 3 plays, 5 yards, 1:42 · from MIN 28Punt
  1. 4th & 5B.Thorson punts 50 yards to DET 17, Center-A.DePaola, fair catch by D.Carter.
  2. 3rd & 5(Shotgun) K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to J.Addison.
  3. 2nd & 6J.Mason right end to MIN 33 for 1 yard (S.Gill-Howard; M.Rodriguez).
  4. 1st & 10(Shotgun) K.Murray pass short left to J.Addison to MIN 32 for 4 yards (R.McCreary).
  5. Q4 4:35J.Bates kicks 63 yards from DET 35 to MIN 2. M.Price to MIN 28 for 26 yards (T.Martin; M.Rodriguez).
Q4 8:44Lions 7 plays, 69 yards, 4:09 · from DET 31Touchdown
  1. 1st & Goal(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short left to J.Williams for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.
  2. 2nd & 1J.Gibbs up the middle to MIN 7 for 9 yards (C.Banks).
  3. 1st & 10J.Gibbs up the middle to MIN 16 for 9 yards (B.Cashman).
  4. 1st & 10(No Huddle) S.Vaki left tackle to MIN 25 for 10 yards (B.Cashman).
  5. 2nd & 5S.Vaki left tackle to MIN 35 for 12 yards (H.Smith).
  6. 1st & 10J.Goff pass short middle to S.Vaki to MIN 47 for 5 yards (E.Wilson).
  7. 1st & 10J.Gibbs right tackle ran ob at DET 48 for 17 yards (J.Metellus).
  8. Q4 8:44W.Reichard kicks 61 yards from MIN 35 to DET 4. K.Dorsey to DET 31 for 27 yards (D.Dallas; C.Chambliss).
Q4 12:40Vikings 7 plays, 84 yards, 3:56 · from MIN 16Touchdown
  1. 2nd & GoalK.Murray pass short middle to T.Hockenson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. K.Murray pass to J.Addison is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
  2. 1st & GoalJ.Mason up the middle to DET 8 for 2 yards (D.Barnes; C.Clark).
  3. 1st & 10K.Murray pass deep middle to J.Addison to DET 10 for 51 yards (K.Dorsey).
  4. 2nd & 7(Shotgun) K.Murray pass short left to J.Jefferson to MIN 39 for 8 yards (R.McCreary).
  5. 1st & 10A.Jones right end to MIN 31 for 3 yards (A.McNeill; T.Nowaske).
  6. 2nd & 1(Shotgun) K.Murray pass short middle to A.Jones to MIN 28 for 3 yards (M.Rodriguez).
  7. 1st & 10(Shotgun) K.Murray left end pushed ob at MIN 25 for 9 yards (A.Hutchinson).
Q4 14:29Lions 3 plays, 5 yards, 1:49 · from DET 25Punt
  1. 4th & 5J.Fox punts 54 yards to MIN 16, Center-H.Hatten, fair catch by M.Price.
  2. 3rd & 5J.Goff pass incomplete short right to S.LaPorta.Penalty on DET-P.Sewell, Offensive Holding, declined.
  3. 3rd & 1J.Goff up the middle to DET 37 for 3 yards (T.Ingram-Dawkins).PENALTY on DET, Illegal Formation, 4 yards, enforced at DET 34 - No Play.
  4. 2nd & 2S.Vaki up the middle to DET 34 for 1 yard (J.Redmond).
  5. 1st & 10S.Vaki left tackle to DET 33 for 8 yards (B.Cashman; E.Wilson).
Q3 4:40Vikings 11 plays, 49 yards, 5:11 · from MIN 26Downs
  1. 4th & 5(Shotgun) K.Murray pass incomplete short left to J.Addison (D.Reed) [A.Hutchinson].
  2. 4th & 5Official Timeout at 14:48.
  3. 3rd & 15(Shotgun) K.Murray pass short middle to T.Hockenson to DET 25 for 10 yards (E.O'Neill; J.Campbell). DET-J.Campbell was injured during the play. DET-J.Rolder was injured during the play.
  4. Q3 0:00END QUARTER 3
  5. 2nd & 10J.Mason left end to DET 35 for -5 yards (J.Rolder).
  6. 1st & 10K.Murray pass incomplete short left.
  7. 1st & 10J.Mason left end pushed ob at DET 30 for 11 yards (T.Nowaske).
  8. 3rd & 7(Shotgun) K.Murray pass deep right to T.Hockenson to DET 41 for 18 yards (R.Ya-Sin).
  9. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) A.Jones up the middle to MIN 41 for 3 yards (J.Rolder; S.Gill-Howard).Penalty on MIN-B.O'Neill, Illegal Formation, declined.
  10. 1st & 10(Shotgun) K.Murray pass incomplete short right to B.Yurosek [T.Williams].
  11. 3rd & 3(Shotgun) K.Murray pass short middle to J.Jennings to MIN 38 for 5 yards (J.Rolder; J.Campbell).
  12. 2nd & 14(Shotgun) K.Murray pass short left to J.Addison to MIN 33 for 11 yards (D.Reed; K.Abney).
  13. 1st & 20(Shotgun) K.Murray pass short right to J.Jennings to MIN 22 for 6 yards (R.McCreary).
  14. 1st & 10J.Mason left tackle to DET 45 for 29 yards (R.Ya-Sin).PENALTY on MIN-W.Fries, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 26 - No Play.
  15. Q3 4:40J.Bates kicks 65 yards from DET 35 to MIN 0. M.Price to MIN 26 for 26 yards (E.O'Neill; A.Ogbongbemiga).
Q3 7:33Lions 6 plays, 72 yards, 2:53 · from DET 28Touchdown
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 04:40.
  2. 1st & 10J.Gibbs up the middle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Gibbs rushes right end. ATTEMPT FAILS.
  3. 3rd & 8(Shotgun) A.St. Brown right end to MIN 30 for 10 yards (H.Smith; K.Van Noy).
  4. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) J.Gibbs left end to MIN 40 for 2 yards (B.Cashman).
  5. 1st & 10J.Goff pass incomplete deep left to J.Williams.
  6. 1st & 10J.Gibbs up the middle to MIN 42 for 11 yards (J.Metellus; I.Rodgers).
  7. 1st & 10J.Goff pass short right to S.LaPorta to DET 47 for 19 yards (B.Cashman).
Q3 9:48Vikings 3 plays, -12 yards, 2:15 · from MIN 36Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 07:33.
  2. 4th & 22B.Thorson punts 48 yards to DET 28, Center-A.DePaola, fair catch by D.Carter.
  3. 3rd & 13(Shotgun) K.Murray sacked at MIN 24 for -9 yards (J.Rolder).
  4. 2nd & 17(Shotgun) D.Dallas up the middle to MIN 33 for 4 yards (A.Hutchinson).
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) K.Murray sacked at MIN 29 for -7 yards (A.McNeill).
Q3 15:00Lions 9 plays, 47 yards, 5:12 · from DET 25Missed FG
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 09:48.
  2. 4th & 5J.Bates 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.
  3. 3rd & 8(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short right to J.Williams to MIN 28 for 3 yards (J.Metellus).
  4. 2nd & 12(Shotgun) J.Gibbs left tackle to MIN 31 for 4 yards (J.Pierre).
  5. 1st & 10J.Gibbs left end ran ob at MIN 35 for -2 yards (E.Wilson).
  6. 2nd & 8(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short left to A.St. Brown ran ob at MIN 33 for 13 yards (J.Metellus).
  7. 1st & 10S.Vaki up the middle to MIN 46 for 2 yards (T.Ingram-Dawkins; J.Metellus).
  8. 1st & 10J.Goff pass short right to J.Gibbs to MIN 48 for 13 yards (L.Rodriguez).
  9. 2nd & 4J.Gibbs right tackle to DET 39 for 8 yards (E.Wilson).
  10. 1st & 10J.Goff pass short right to S.LaPorta pushed ob at DET 31 for 6 yards (B.Murphy).
  11. Q3 15:00W.Reichard kicks 57 yards from MIN 35 to DET 8. D.Carter pushed ob at DET 25 for 17 yards (C.Chambliss).
Q2 0:02Vikings 1 play, -1 yard, 0:02 · from MIN 35End of Half
  1. Q2 0:00END QUARTER 2
  2. 1st & 10K.Murray kneels to MIN 34 for -1 yards.
  3. Q2 0:02J.Bates kicks 65 yards from DET 35 to end zone, Touchback to the MIN 35.
Q2 1:47Lions 7 plays, 43 yards, 1:45 · from DET 38Field Goal
  1. 1st & 10J.Bates 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.
  2. 1st & 10Timeout #1 by MIN at 00:05.
  3. 1st & 10Timeout #2 by DET at 00:05.
  4. 2nd & 14(Shotgun) J.Gibbs up the middle to MIN 19 for 19 yards (B.Murphy).
  5. 2nd & 4(Shotgun) J.Goff pass incomplete short right [B.Cashman].PENALTY on DET-P.Sewell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 28 - No Play.
  6. 2nd & 4Timeout #1 by DET at 00:18.
  7. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short left to A.St. Brown to MIN 28 for 6 yards (T.Jackson) [H.Smith].
  8. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short left to J.Williams ran ob at MIN 34 for 14 yards (B.Murphy) [D.Turner].
  9. 4th & 1(Run formation) PENALTY on MIN-T.Ingram-Dawkins, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at DET 47 - No Play.
  10. 3rd & 3(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short left to J.Gibbs pushed ob at DET 47 for 2 yards (B.Murphy).
  11. 2nd & 7J.Goff pass short left to A.St. Brown to DET 45 for 4 yards (B.Cashman; B.Murphy).
  12. 1st & 10J.Gibbs left tackle to DET 41 for 3 yards (I.Rodgers; B.Cashman).
Q2 3:10Vikings 4 plays, 37 yards, 1:23 · from MIN 10Interception
  1. 1st & 10K.Murray pass short left intended for J.Addison INTERCEPTED by D.Reed [T.Lacy] at DET 38. D.Reed pushed ob at MIN 30 for 32 yards (B.O'Neill).The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED.K.Murray pass short left intended for J.Addison INTERCEPTED by D.Reed [T.Lacy] at DET 38. D.Reed to DET 38 for no gain (J.Addison).
  2. 1st & 10(Shotgun) K.Murray scrambles up the middle ran ob at MIN 47 for 22 yards (R.Ya-Sin).
  3. 1st & 10Two-Minute Warning
  4. 2nd & 3(Shotgun) K.Murray pass short right to J.Jefferson to MIN 25 for 8 yards (D.Moore).
  5. 2nd & 3Official Timeout at 02:57.
  6. 1st & 10K.Murray pass short right to J.Jefferson to MIN 17 for 7 yards (D.Wonnum). DET-D.Wonnum was injured during the play.
Q2 5:06Lions 3 plays, 1 yard, 1:56 · from DET 49Punt
  1. 4th & 9J.Fox punts 40 yards to MIN 10, Center-H.Hatten, fair catch by M.Price.
  2. 3rd & 6(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Goff sacked at 50 for -3 yards (A.Van Ginkel).
  3. 2nd & 3J.Gibbs left end to MIN 47 for -3 yards (D.Turner, E.Wilson).
  4. 1st & 10J.Goff pass short right to T.Conklin to MIN 44 for 7 yards (J.Metellus; B.Cashman).
Q2 6:34Vikings 3 plays, -7 yards, 1:28 · from MIN 21Punt
  1. 4th & 17B.Thorson punts 37 yards to DET 49, Center-A.DePaola, out of bounds. ** Injury Update: DET-J.Saylors has returned to the game.
  2. 3rd & 17(Shotgun) K.Murray pass incomplete short left to J.Jefferson.
  3. 2nd & 8(Shotgun) K.Murray sacked at MIN 14 for -9 yards (S.Gill-Howard).
  4. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Mason right tackle to MIN 23 for 2 yards (M.Rodriguez).
Q2 11:21Lions 6 plays, 18 yards, 4:47 · from DET 8Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 06:34.
  2. 4th & 3J.Fox punts 53 yards to MIN 21, impetus ends at MIN 21, Center-H.Hatten. M.Price to MIN 21 for no gain (K.Dorsey).
  3. 3rd & 1J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 26 for -2 yards (T.Jackson).
  4. 2nd & 7J.Goff pass short left to A.St. Brown to DET 28 for 6 yards (J.Pierre) [D.Turner].
  5. 1st & 10(No Huddle) S.Vaki left tackle to DET 22 for 3 yards (J.Metellus).
  6. 3rd & 4(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short left to A.St. Brown to DET 19 for 5 yards (E.Wilson) [T.Ingram-Dawkins].
  7. 2nd & 14S.Vaki right tackle to DET 14 for 10 yards (J.Metellus; T.Jackson).
  8. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) PENALTY on DET-P.Sewell, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at DET 8 - No Play.
  9. 2nd & 5(Shotgun) PENALTY on DET-P.Sewell, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DET 13 - No Play.
  10. 1st & 10S.Vaki left tackle to DET 13 for 5 yards (J.Redmond; T.Jackson).
Q2 12:49Vikings 3 plays, 2 yards, 1:28 · from MIN 46Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 11:21.
  2. 4th & 8B.Thorson punts 44 yards to DET 8, Center-A.DePaola, out of bounds.
  3. 3rd & 8(Shotgun) K.Murray pass incomplete short left to J.Jefferson.
  4. 2nd & 6J.Mason left end to MIN 48 for -2 yards (A.Hutchinson, D.Wonnum).
  5. 1st & 15(Shotgun) K.Murray pass short right to J.Jefferson ran ob at 50 for 9 yards.
  6. 1st & 10PENALTY on MIN-B.O'Neill, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 46 - No Play.
Q2 14:25Lions 3 plays, 2 yards, 1:36 · from DET 37Interception
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 12:49.
  2. 3rd & 8(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short left intended for J.Williams INTERCEPTED by J.Pierre at MIN 46. J.Pierre pushed ob at MIN 46 for no gain (J.Williams).
  3. 2nd & 8(Shotgun) J.Gibbs left end to DET 39 for no gain (E.Wilson).
  4. 1st & 10J.Gibbs right tackle to DET 39 for 2 yards (I.Pace).
  5. Q2 14:25W.Reichard kicks 62 yards from MIN 35 to DET 3. J.Saylors MUFFS catch, and recovers at DET 5. J.Saylors pushed ob at DET 32 for 27 yards (J.Ward).PENALTY on MIN-J.Golday, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DET 32.
Q1 2:18Vikings 7 plays, 74 yards, 2:53 · from MIN 26Touchdown
  1. Q2 14:25Official Timeout at 14:25.
  2. 1st & Goal(No Huddle) K.Murray pass short left to J.Jefferson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.
  3. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) K.Murray pass short middle to A.Jones to DET 1 for 15 yards (J.Rolder; R.Ya-Sin).
  4. Q1 0:00END QUARTER 1
  5. 1st & 10K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to J.Jefferson.
  6. 3rd & 3(Shotgun) K.Murray pass deep right to T.Hockenson to DET 16 for 22 yards (B.Branch). The player down by contact was assisted by replay.
  7. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) A.Jones right tackle to DET 38 for 7 yards (C.Clark).
  8. 1st & 10(Shotgun) K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to J.Jefferson.
  9. 2nd & 4(No Huddle, Shotgun) K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to J.Addison.PENALTY on DET-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, 23 yards, enforced at MIN 32 - No Play.
  10. 1st & 10A.Jones right end to MIN 32 for 6 yards (A.Hutchinson).
  11. Q1 2:18J.Bates kicks 59 yards from DET 35 to MIN 6. M.Price to MIN 26 for 20 yards (C.Izien; E.O'Neill).
Q1 7:21Lions 12 plays, 57 yards, 5:03 · from DET 36Field Goal
  1. Q1 2:18Official Timeout at 02:18.
  2. 4th & 5J.Bates 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.
  3. 3rd & 5(Shotgun) J.Goff pass incomplete short right to J.Gibbs.
  4. 2nd & 2(Shotgun) J.Gibbs left tackle to MIN 7 for -3 yards (B.Cashman).
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short middle to S.LaPorta to MIN 4 for 8 yards (H.Smith).
  6. 2nd & 10J.Gibbs left tackle to MIN 12 for 12 yards (B.Murphy; H.Smith).
  7. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Goff pass deep middle to A.St. Brown for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to A.St. Brown.
  8. 3rd & 13(Shotgun) J.Goff pass deep middle to J.Williams to MIN 9 for 46 yards (B.Murphy).PENALTY on DET-J.Williams, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 9.
  9. 2nd & 7J.Goff sacked at DET 45 for -6 yards (sack split by A.Van Ginkel and T.Ingram-Dawkins).
  10. 1st & 10(No Huddle) S.Vaki left end to MIN 49 for 3 yards (E.Wilson).
  11. 3rd & 7(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short middle to A.St. Brown to DET 48 for 9 yards (J.Metellus).
  12. 2nd & 10J.Gibbs right guard to DET 39 for 3 yards (B.Murphy).
  13. 1st & 10J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to J.Gibbs (J.Redmond).
Q1 9:28Vikings 4 plays, 16 yards, 2:07 · from MIN 10Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 07:21.
  2. 4th & 4B.Thorson punts 38 yards to DET 36, Center-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-Z.Vaughn.
  3. 3rd & 4(Shotgun) K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to J.Addison.
  4. 2nd & 9(Shotgun) K.Murray left end ran ob at MIN 26 for 5 yards (C.Clark).
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Mason left tackle to MIN 21 for 1 yard (T.Nowaske).
  6. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Mason up the middle to MIN 20 for 10 yards (B.Branch).
Q1 13:08Lions 7 plays, 4 yards, 3:40 · from DET 47Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 09:28.
  2. 4th & 23J.Fox punts 39 yards to MIN 10, Center-H.Hatten, fair catch by M.Price.
  3. 3rd & 13(Shotgun) J.Goff sacked at MIN 49 for -10 yards (E.Wilson).
  4. 2nd & 13(Shotgun) J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to S.LaPorta (J.Metellus).
  5. 1st & 10J.Goff sacked at MIN 39 for -3 yards (A.Van Ginkel).
  6. 2nd & 7(Shotgun) S.Vaki left end to MIN 21 for 8 yards (J.Metellus; E.Wilson).PENALTY on DET-A.St. Brown, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 21.
  7. 1st & 10J.Gibbs left tackle to MIN 29 for 3 yards (A.Van Ginkel; J.Metellus).
  8. 3rd & 4(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Goff pass incomplete deep left to A.St. Brown.PENALTY on MIN-L.Rodriguez, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 47 - No Play.
  9. 2nd & 7J.Goff pass short right to A.St. Brown to MIN 47 for 3 yards (B.Murphy).
  10. 1st & 10J.Gibbs right tackle to 50 for 3 yards (D.Turner).
Q1 15:00Vikings 5 plays, 27 yards, 1:52 · from MIN 35Missed FG
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 13:08.
  2. 4th & 7W.Reichard 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.
  3. 3rd & 7(Shotgun) K.Murray pass incomplete short left to T.Hockenson.
  4. 2nd & 7(Shotgun) K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to J.Addison (D.Reed).
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) A.Jones up the middle to DET 38 for 3 yards (J.Campbell; D.Moore).
  6. 1st & 10K.Murray pass short right to B.Yurosek to DET 41 for 24 yards (R.McCreary; B.Branch).
  7. Q1 15:00J.Bates kicks 65 yards from DET 35 to end zone, Touchback to the MIN 35.

Plays via ESPN. The full play-by-play, with EPA and our win probability, lands with the overnight data refresh.

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Lions

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapLions
  • -0.099EPA / play+0.144
  • 36.7%Success rate49.9%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback+0.309
  • -0.195EPA / rush-0.108
  • 7.6%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +0.39CPOE+1.18
  • 38.6%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 46.3%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
  • 1.65Points / drive2.92
  • 1.1%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–18 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET
2022 · W3DET @ MIN24–28MIN

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.88