2023 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Nick Mullens

20·30

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -3.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

-1.0est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapLions
  • -0.025EPA / play+0.058
  • 43.2%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.039EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.014
  • 9.4%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +2.80CPOE+1.34
  • 37.5%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 56.4%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
  • 1.84Points / drive2.29
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–18 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET
2022 · W3DET @ MIN24–28MIN
2021 · W13MIN @ DET27–29DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DET
DETQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
MINQ1 14:05633Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:07452Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 8:063-2Punt0–7
DETQ1 6:05864Touchdown0–13
MINQ1 2:121579Field goal3–13
DETQ2 9:20517Punt3–13
MINQ2 6:31735Punt3–13
DETQ2 2:35617Punt3–13
MINQ2 1:12657Field goal6–13
MINQ3 15:00846Turnover on downs6–13
DETQ3 11:291054Touchdown6–20
MINQ3 7:143-4Punt6–20
DETQ3 5:0738Punt6–20
MINQ3 3:37680Touchdown13–20
DETQ3 0:20275Touchdown13–27
MINQ4 14:45375Touchdown20–27
DETQ4 13:22959Field goal20–30
MINQ4 8:141344Turnover20–30
DETQ4 3:1135Punt20–30
MINQ4 2:4735Turnover20–30
DETQ4 2:08426End of half20–30

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Mullens30/4439622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ty Chandler12695.80
Alexander Mattison7243.40
Nick Mullens284.00
Justin Jefferson1-12-12.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson12141921
Johnny Mundt56580
Jordan Addison48571
Josh Oliver23310
Nick Muse11220
Ty Chandler23200
K.J. Osborn2490
Alexander Mattison1150
Brandon Powell1320

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff23/3232020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery10404.01
Jahmyr Gibbs13302.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown7101441
Kalif Raymond22500
Josh Reynolds57440
Sam LaPorta57291
Donovan Peoples-Jones22250
James Mitchell11240
Jahmyr Gibbs0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.4%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.56
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.99