Closing spread
DET -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play+0.058
- 43.2%Success rate45.9%
- +0.039EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.014
- 9.4%Explosive rate11.2%
- +2.80CPOE+1.34
- 37.5%Third-down rate42.4%
- 56.4%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.84Points / drive2.29
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 30/44 | 396 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Chandler | 12 | 69 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | -12 | -12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 12 | 14 | 192 | 1 |
| Johnny Mundt | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 4 | 8 | 57 | 1 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Nick Muse | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 23/32 | 320 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 13 | 30 | 2.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 10 | 144 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 5 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 5 | 7 | 29 | 1 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| James Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.78
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-4.56
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.99