Closing spread
DET -3
Total
56.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play+0.156
- 46.3%Success rate49.6%
- +0.135EPA / dropback+0.267
- -0.119EPA / rush+0.021
- 9.6%Explosive rate11.5%
- +4.00CPOE+5.81
- 39.7%Third-down rate48.1%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate74.9%
- 2.09Points / drive3.02
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 18/41 | 166 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 6 | 65 | 10.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 3 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 27/33 | 231 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 23 | 139 | 6.0 | 3 |
| Craig Reynolds | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 7 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 6 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 5 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Tim Patrick | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.96