2024 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Darnold

9·31

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

56.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapLions
  • +0.038EPA / play+0.156
  • 46.3%Success rate49.6%
  • +0.135EPA / dropback+0.267
  • -0.119EPA / rush+0.021
  • 9.6%Explosive rate11.5%
  • +4.00CPOE+5.81
  • 39.7%Third-down rate48.1%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate74.9%
  • 2.09Points / drive3.02
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–18 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET
2022 · W3DET @ MIN24–28MIN
2021 · W13MIN @ DET27–29DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DET
DETQ1 15:0066Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:00834Punt0–0
DETQ1 7:011088Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 1:433-8Punt0–7
DETQ2 15:003-16Punt0–7
MINQ2 13:10947Turnover on downs0–7
DETQ2 10:10723Turnover0–7
MINQ2 6:5530Field goal3–7
DETQ2 6:35628Turnover on downs3–7
MINQ2 3:37840Field goal6–7
DETQ2 0:20230Field goal6–10
MINQ3 15:00963Turnover on downs6–10
DETQ3 11:5810Turnover6–10
MINQ3 11:50534Field goal9–10
DETQ3 9:551374Touchdown9–17
MINQ3 2:30536Missed field goal9–17
DETQ3 0:23659Touchdown9–24
MINQ4 13:066-1Punt9–24
DETQ4 10:13772Touchdown9–31
MINQ4 5:14818Turnover on downs9–31
DETQ4 4:09730Turnover on downs9–31
MINQ4 0:2700End of half9–31

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold18/4116600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers66510.80
Aaron Jones10454.50
Sam Darnold3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson39540
Jalen Nailor34530
Aaron Jones56300
Josh Oliver23160
T.J. Hockenson2890
Cam Akers2240
Jordan Addison1600

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff27/3323112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs231396.03
Craig Reynolds8394.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown67770
Sam LaPorta77630
Jameson Williams68340
Jahmyr Gibbs55311
Tim Patrick22150
Kalif Raymond11110
Craig Reynolds0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.96