Closing spread
PIT -5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play-0.068
- 41.6%Success rate39.4%
- -0.073EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.132
- 6.4%Explosive rate7.1%
- 37.4%Third-down rate39.2%
- 52.5%Red-zone TD rate43.1%
- 1.27Points / drive1.24
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.045EPA / play allowed+0.041
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 41–16 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 13:15 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 13:02 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 11:31 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 9:48 | 8 | 49 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q1 6:17 | 10 | 55 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| PIT | Q1 1:41 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CIN | Q2 14:23 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 7–3 |
| PIT | Q2 12:24 | 11 | 44 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| CIN | Q2 6:35 | 11 | 56 | Missed field goal | 14–3 |
| PIT | Q2 1:32 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 14–3 |
| CIN | Q2 0:26 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 14–3 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–3 |
| PIT | Q3 13:03 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 14–3 |
| CIN | Q3 10:06 | 9 | 30 | Punt | 14–3 |
| PIT | Q3 6:01 | 7 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 14–3 |
| CIN | Q3 2:53 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 14–3 |
| PIT | Q3 0:47 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 14–3 |
| CIN | Q4 13:31 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–3 |
| PIT | Q4 12:14 | 6 | 51 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| CIN | Q4 9:22 | 14 | 89 | Turnover | 17–3 |
| PIT | Q4 4:35 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–3 |
| PIT | Q4 3:51 | 5 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 17–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 17/29 | 134 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 26 | 111 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Richard Huntley | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 7 | 1 | 0.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Edwards | 4 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Will Blackwell | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Courtney Hawkins | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akili Smith | 19/38 | 207 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 16 | 78 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Akili Smith | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Michael Basnight | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Pickens | 4 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Damon Griffin | 4 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.47
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.39