Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Total
39
Model margin
+0.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play+0.012
- 47.8%Success rate45.1%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.016
- -0.064EPA / rush+0.006
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.9%
- +2.74CPOE+1.33
- 47.3%Third-down rate43.5%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 2.27Points / drive1.65
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 24/39 | 355 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 9 | 13 | 148 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 4 | 52 | 3 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 3 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 25/42 | 265 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 20 | 90 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Kenny Pickett | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 4 | 6 | 83 | 1 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 8 | 12 | 79 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.34