2022 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

37·30

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 27°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

Total

39

Model margin

+0.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.081EPA / play+0.012
  • 47.8%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback+0.016
  • -0.064EPA / rush+0.006
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +2.74CPOE+1.33
  • 47.3%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.65
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PIT are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W1PIT @ CIN23–20PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–PIT
CINQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:5737Punt0–0
CINQ1 11:03430Field goal3–0
PITQ1 8:54841Field goal3–3
CINQ1 4:37764Touchdown10–3
PITQ1 0:39856Touchdown10–10
CINQ2 12:581092Touchdown17–10
PITQ2 6:381359Touchdown17–17
CINQ2 1:47629Turnover17–17
PITQ2 0:31449Field goal17–20
PITQ3 15:0031Punt17–20
CINQ3 13:27410Punt17–20
PITQ3 11:4436Punt17–20
CINQ3 10:07759Touchdown24–20
PITQ3 7:0236Punt24–20
CINQ3 5:2710Turnover24–20
PITQ3 5:2336Field goal24–23
CINQ3 4:28822Field goal27–23
PITQ3 0:31627Punt27–23
CINQ4 12:3132Punt27–23
PITQ4 11:35620Punt27–23
CINQ4 9:33893Touchdown34–23
PITQ4 4:3041Turnover on downs34–23
CINQ4 3:3532Field goal37–23
PITQ4 3:18972Touchdown37–30
CINQ4 0:4500End of half37–30

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow24/3935542

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Samaje Perine11302.70
Joe Mixon7202.90
Trayveon Williams273.50
Joe Burrow451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins9131480
Samaje Perine44523
Tyler Boyd27420
Joe Mixon33420
Trenton Irwin34421
Hayden Hurst23280
Trent Taylor1110
Mike Thomas0100
Trayveon Williams0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett25/4226510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris20904.52
Kenny Pickett2147.00
Diontae Johnson111.00
Steven Sims1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens46831
Pat Freiermuth812790
Gunner Olszewski23390
Najee Harris46260
Diontae Johnson45210
Jaylen Warren1190
Zach Gentry2380
Steven Sims0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.34