Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
46
Model margin
+5.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Steelers
- OutCory TriceCBHamstring· Limited
- OutMontravius AdamsDTKnee· Limited
- DoubtfulAlex HighsmithLBAnkle· Limited
Bengals
- OutSheldon RankinsDTIllness· DNP
- DoubtfulCharlie JonesWRGroin· DNP
- QuestionableLogan WilsonLBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableOrlando BrownTFibula· Full
- LimitedTee HigginsWRNot injury related - resting player
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play+0.107
- 40.7%Success rate48.0%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.193
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.081
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.3%
- +3.65CPOE+6.81
- 39.7%Third-down rate47.3%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
- 1.86Points / drive2.50
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 41–16 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 12:57 | 4 | 7 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 11:49 | 7 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CIN | Q1 7:41 | 6 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| PIT | Q1 5:01 | 10 | 90 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| CIN | Q2 14:56 | 12 | 58 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| PIT | Q2 9:52 | 5 | 49 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| CIN | Q2 7:19 | 5 | 27 | Turnover | 21–21 |
| PIT | Q2 4:36 | 4 | 29 | Field goal | 24–21 |
| CIN | Q2 3:31 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 24–21 |
| PIT | Q2 1:56 | 7 | 65 | Field goal | 27–21 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 62 | Missed field goal | 27–21 |
| CIN | Q3 11:28 | 11 | 53 | Field goal | 27–24 |
| PIT | Q3 3:53 | 6 | 75 | Touchdown | 34–24 |
| CIN | Q3 0:22 | 4 | 32 | Turnover | 34–24 |
| PIT | Q4 13:29 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 34–24 |
| CIN | Q4 12:43 | 5 | -1 | Opp touchdown | 41–24 |
| CIN | Q4 11:06 | 8 | 46 | Touchdown | 41–31 |
| PIT | Q4 8:39 | 11 | 58 | Field goal | 44–31 |
| CIN | Q4 3:53 | 5 | 64 | Touchdown | 44–38 |
| PIT | Q4 2:39 | 3 | 13 | End of half | 44–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 29/38 | 414 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 16 | 75 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 3 | 6 | 74 | 1 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 6 | 7 | 68 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 6 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 28/38 | 309 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 12 | 70 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Khalil Herbert | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 6 | 9 | 86 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 10 | 69 | 1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 5 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 3 | 4 | 35 | 1 |
| Chase Brown | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+5.08