Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
46
Model margin
+5.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play+0.107
- 40.7%Success rate48.0%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.193
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.081
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.3%
- +3.65CPOE+6.81
- 39.7%Third-down rate47.3%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
- 1.86Points / drive2.50
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 29/38 | 414 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 16 | 75 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 3 | 6 | 74 | 1 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 6 | 7 | 68 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 6 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 28/38 | 309 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 12 | 70 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Khalil Herbert | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 6 | 9 | 86 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 10 | 69 | 1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 5 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 3 | 4 | 35 | 1 |
| Chase Brown | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+5.08