2025 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Flacco

12·34

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

PIT -5.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.012EPA / play+0.027
  • 46.4%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.012EPA / dropback+0.046
  • +0.012EPA / rush-0.001
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.28CPOE+0.58
  • 44.3%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 69.0%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 1.93Points / drive2.11
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PIT are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN
2022 · W1PIT @ CIN23–20PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–PIT
PITQ1 15:00878Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 10:121066Touchdown6–7
PITQ1 5:10922Punt6–7
CINQ1 0:09925Punt6–7
PITQ2 10:4937Punt6–7
CINQ2 9:1037Punt6–7
PITQ2 8:14522Punt6–7
CINQ2 5:01624Punt6–7
PITQ2 1:511259Field goal6–10
CINQ2 0:1000End of half6–10
CINQ3 15:00651Field goal9–10
PITQ3 11:531571Field goal9–13
CINQ3 4:16833Opp touchdown9–20
CINQ3 0:371137Field goal12–20
PITQ4 9:411285Touchdown12–27
CINQ4 3:4015Opp touchdown12–34
CINQ4 3:221050Turnover on downs12–34
PITQ4 0:0500End of half12–34

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco23/4019911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown18995.50
Tahj Brooks155.00
Kendall Milton221.00
Joe Flacco1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins38631
Noah Fant56360
Ja'Marr Chase310300
Chase Brown68280
Tanner Hudson33220
Andrei Iosivas34200

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph12/1612710
Aaron Rodgers9/1511610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren10626.20
Kenny Gainwell9242.70
Kaleb Johnson5153.00
Aaron Rodgers188.00
Mason Rudolph1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Gainwell78812
Darnell Washington45670
DK Metcalf58490
Pat Freiermuth11190
Roman Wilson12170
Jaylen Warren2250
Calvin Austin III1150
Jonnu Smith0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

3.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.9%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.06