Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play+0.027
- 46.4%Success rate44.1%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.046
- +0.012EPA / rush-0.001
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.28CPOE+0.58
- 44.3%Third-down rate40.4%
- 69.0%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 1.93Points / drive2.11
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 23/40 | 199 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 18 | 99 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tahj Brooks | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kendall Milton | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 3 | 8 | 63 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 3 | 10 | 30 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 6 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 12/16 | 127 | 1 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 9/15 | 116 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 10 | 62 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Gainwell | 7 | 8 | 81 | 2 |
| Darnell Washington | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Roman Wilson | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.06