Closing spread
CIN -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.001EPA / play-0.251
- 47.6%Success rate33.8%
- -0.030EPA / dropback-0.251
- +0.050EPA / rush-0.252
- 11.1%Explosive rate6.2%
- +6.35CPOE+1.23
- 57.1%Third-down rate25.0%
- 40.0%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 2.11Points / drive1.00
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
34.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.03