2026 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

27·30

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.118EPA / play-0.011
  • 50.4%Success rate42.8%
  • +0.235EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.133EPA / rush+0.097
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +9.08CPOE-2.16
  • 53.9%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 66.5%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 2.60Points / drive1.87
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PIT are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN
2022 · W1PIT @ CIN23–20PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–PIT
PITQ1 15:00473Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 13:101178Touchdown7–7
PITQ1 5:501186Touchdown7–14
CINQ1 0:52937Field goal10–14
PITQ2 10:16555Field goal10–17
CINQ2 7:05518Punt10–17
PITQ2 4:30932Turnover10–17
CINQ2 1:40553Touchdown17–17
PITQ2 0:34212End of half17–17
CINQ3 15:001175Field goal20–17
PITQ3 8:221159Touchdown20–24
CINQ3 2:43864Touchdown27–24
PITQ4 13:29611Punt27–24
PITQ4 10:523-4Field goal27–27
CINQ4 8:4538Punt27–27
PITQ4 7:39889Field goal27–30
CINQ4 2:15519Turnover27–30
PITQ4 0:4400End of half27–30

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow28/3728230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown13614.70
Joe Burrow2136.50
Samaje Perine393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase912981
Tee Higgins67901
Mike Gesicki33371
Dohnte Meyers35290
Tanner Hudson22130
Chase Brown2280
Samaje Perine1350
Colbie Young1120
Drew Sample1200

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers19/3429231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren171277.50
Aaron Rodgers3103.30
Pat Freiermuth111.00
Travis Homer100.00
Lew Nichols III100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Washington34670
Roman Wilson36601
Jaylen Warren34490
DK Metcalf35311
Pat Freiermuth24300
Ben Skowronek11231
Michael Pittman25160
Germie Bernard11140
Robert Tonyan1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

6.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.79