Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.027EPA / play+0.012
- 44.1%Success rate46.4%
- +0.046EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.001EPA / rush+0.012
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- +0.58CPOE+1.28
- 40.4%Third-down rate44.3%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
- 2.11Points / drive1.93
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/34 | 249 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 16 | 127 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 5 | 6 | 111 | 2 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 6 | 28 | 1 |
| Roman Wilson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 31/47 | 342 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 11 | 108 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 16 | 23 | 161 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 6 | 10 | 96 | 1 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 4 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| Chase Brown | 2 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.79