2025 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

31·33

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Flacco

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 60°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -5.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBengals
  • +0.027EPA / play+0.012
  • 44.1%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback+0.012
  • -0.001EPA / rush+0.012
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +0.58CPOE+1.28
  • 40.4%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.93
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN
2022 · W1PIT @ CIN23–20PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CIN
PITQ1 15:00874Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 10:51620Punt7–0
PITQ1 7:25418Punt7–0
CINQ1 5:58824Punt7–0
PITQ1 2:451265Field goal10–0
CINQ2 10:261077Touchdown10–7
PITQ2 4:3810Turnover10–7
CINQ2 4:25472Touchdown10–14
PITQ2 2:52726Turnover10–14
CINQ2 0:40627Field goal10–17
CINQ3 15:001363Field goal10–20
PITQ3 7:551061Touchdown17–20
CINQ3 3:55867Touchdown17–27
PITQ4 14:57773Touchdown24–27
CINQ4 11:03963Field goal24–30
PITQ4 6:5836Punt24–30
CINQ4 5:1655Punt24–30
PITQ4 2:46368Touchdown31–30
CINQ4 2:21463Field goal31–33
PITQ4 0:0725End of half31–33

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers23/3424942

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren161277.90
Kenny Gainwell3144.70
Aaron Rodgers166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pat Freiermuth561112
DK Metcalf35500
Jaylen Warren45310
Jonnu Smith36281
Roman Wilson22170
Scott Miller1190
Darnell Washington3521
Kenny Gainwell2210

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco31/4734230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown111089.80
Samaje Perine7314.40
Joe Flacco530.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase16231611
Tee Higgins610961
Andrei Iosivas34490
Noah Fant44441
Chase Brown24-80

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.79